Can Specialty Diagnostics Strength Drive Thermo Fisher's Q4 Earnings?

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. TMO is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 29, before market open.

In the last reported quarter, earnings of $5.79 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.27%. TMO’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 2.95%. 

TMO’s Q4 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $11.95 billion, suggesting a 4.9% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. 

The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $6.44 per share, indicating 5.6% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported numbers.

Estimate Revision Trend Ahead of Earnings

Estimates for Thermo Fisher’s fourth-quarter earnings have remained unchanged at $6.44 per share in the past 30 days.

Now, let's take a look at how things might have progressed for the MedTech major prior to the announcement.

Factors at Play

Thermo Fisher’s Analytical Instruments segment is expected to have generated strong sales, banking on its electron microscopy and chromatography and mass spectrometry businesses. 

During the fourth quarter, Thermo Fisher launched the Orbitrap Exploris EFOX Mass Detector – a high-resolution accurate mass (HRAM) Orbitrap system designed specifically for environmental and food safety laboratories. Additionally, in the previous quarter, TMO launched two new electron microscopes — Scios 3 and Talos 12. It also introduced the Hypulse Surface Analysis System, a revolutionary advancement in X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) depth profiling. We expect these developments to have boosted the quarterly top-line numbers.

Per the Zacks Consensus Estimates, Thermo Fisher’s Analytical Instruments business should post $2.19 billion in revenues, suggesting 0.1% growth year over year.

Within the Life-Science Solutions segment, the company is likely to have experienced sales growth, banking on its bioproduction business. In December, Thermo Fisher launched Gibco Bacto CD Supreme FPM Plus and Supreme Feed (2X) — two next-generation chemically-defined formulations to enhance and simplify plasmid DNA and recombinant protein production using Escherichia coli (E. coli). The company introduced a new Bioprocess Design Center in Hyderabad, India, and expanded its existing Bioprocess Design Centers in Incheon, Korea and Singapore. 

Additionally, in the previous quarter, Thermo Fisher completed the acquisition of the Purification & Filtration business of Solventum for approximately $4.0 billion in cash. The company also launched Gibco Efficient-Pro Medium (+) Insulin and the Olink Target 48 Neurodegeneration panel. These developments might have turned in favor of Thermo Fisher in the to-be-reported quarter.

Per the Zacks Consensus Estimates, the Life-Science Solutions business is expected to report $2.89 billion in fourth-quarter revenues, calling for an 11.1% improvement year over year.

The Specialty Diagnostics segment (Clinical Diagnostics business from the molecular controls that go into testing kits) is likely to have gained from positive contributions, led by its transplant diagnostics and immunodiagnostics businesses.

Additionally, during the fourth quarter, TMO received FDA approval for Ion Torrent Oncomine Dx Target Test as a companion diagnostic to identify patients who may be eligible for treatment with HYRNUO. It introduced the SureTect Beverage Spoilage Multiplex qPCR Assay, a quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR)-based test developed in collaboration with Coca-Cola Europacific Partners.

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. price-eps-surprise | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. Quote

Also, TMO received 510(k) clearance for the EXENT Analyser and Immunoglobulin Isotypes (GAM) Assay, an automated platform for clinical laboratories. In the previous quarter, it received FDA approval for the Oncomine Dx Express Test on the Ion Torrent Genexus Dx Integrated Sequencer as an IVD assay for use as a CDx for Dizal’s ZEGFROVY (sunvozertinib) and in tumor profiling. We expect these product approvals and launches to have contributed positively to the company’s top-line performance.

Per the Zacks Consensus Estimates TMO’s Specialty Diagnostics business is expected to report $1.21 billion in revenues, suggesting 4.8% growth year over year.

Within the Laboratory Products and Services segment, revenues are expected to have increased due to the research and safety market channel. 

During the fourth quarter, TMO launched CorEvitas Clinical Registry in myasthenia gravis, a rare autoimmune disorder and Clinical Trial Carbon Calculator, designed to help sponsors measure, manage and minimize the environmental impact of research. TMO also entered into a R&D partnership with the AstraZeneca BioVentureHub in Gothenburg, Sweden. In the previous quarter, TMO completed the acquisition of Sanofi’s state-of-the-art sterile fill-finish and packaging site in Ridgefield, NJ, and opened a new manufacturing center of excellence facility in Mebane, NC. These, too, might have had a favorable impact on TMO’s top line in the to-be-reported quarter.

Our model expects Laboratory Products and Services business fourth-quarter revenues to be $6.15 billion, suggesting growth of 3.7% year over year.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts

Per our proven model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: Thermo Fisher has an Earnings ESP of -0.63%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3.

Key Picks

Here are some medical stocks worth considering, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle:

Veracyte VCYT has an Earnings ESP of +7.98% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present. The company is expected to release fourth-quarter 2025 results soon. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

VCYT’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 45.12%. Per the Zacks Consensus Estimate, the company’s fourth-quarter EPS may decrease 13.9% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Cardinal Health CAH has an Earnings ESP of +2.30% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The company is slated to release second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Feb. 5. 

CAH’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, the average surprise being 9.36%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal second-quarter EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 20.7%.

Danaher DHR has an Earnings ESP of +1.06% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The company is expected to release fourth-quarter 2025 results soon.

DHR’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other one, the average surprise being 8.74%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter EPS suggests no year-over-year improvement. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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