Tesla (TSLA) Q4 Earnings Preview: What You Should Know Beyond the Headline Estimates

By Zacks Equity Research | January 23, 2026, 9:15 AM

The upcoming report from Tesla (TSLA) is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $0.44 per share, indicating a decline of 39.7% compared to the year-ago period. Analysts forecast revenues of $25.11 billion, representing a decline of 2.3% year over year.

Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been adjusted downward by 12.6% to its current level. This demonstrates the covering analysts' collective reassessment of their initial projections during this period.

Before a company reveals its earnings, it is vital to take into account any changes in earnings projections. These revisions play a pivotal role in predicting the possible reactions of investors toward the stock. Multiple empirical studies have consistently shown a strong association between trends in earnings estimates and the short-term price movements of a stock.

While investors typically use consensus earnings and revenue estimates as indicators of quarterly business performance, exploring analysts' projections for specific key metrics can offer valuable insights.

That said, let's delve into the average estimates of some Tesla metrics that Wall Street analysts commonly model and monitor.

Analysts predict that the 'Revenues- Automotive sales' will reach $17.97 billion. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of -3.7%.

The consensus among analysts is that 'Revenues- Energy generation and storage' will reach $3.66 billion. The estimate indicates a change of +19.7% from the prior-year quarter.

Analysts' assessment points toward 'Revenues- Services and other' reaching $3.48 billion. The estimate points to a change of +22.2% from the year-ago quarter.

It is projected by analysts that the 'Revenues- Automotive regulatory credits' will reach $397.59 million. The estimate points to a change of -42.5% from the year-ago quarter.

Analysts expect 'Geographic Revenues- United States' to come in at $12.95 billion. The estimate indicates a change of +6.8% from the prior-year quarter.

The combined assessment of analysts suggests that 'Geographic Revenues- Other International' will likely reach $7.34 billion. The estimate suggests a change of -2.6% year over year.

The average prediction of analysts places 'Geographic Revenues- China' at $5.28 billion. The estimate indicates a change of -12.8% from the prior-year quarter.

Analysts forecast 'Total vehicle deliveries' to reach 439,293 . The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 495,570 .

The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Other models deliveries' of 12,202 . Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 23,640 in the same quarter of the previous year.

The consensus estimate for 'Model 3/Y deliveries' stands at 413,581 . The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 471,930 .

Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Storage deployed' should arrive at 13380 megawatt hours. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 11000 megawatt hours.

According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Total Leased Units' should come in at 16,510 . The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 26,962 .

View all Key Company Metrics for Tesla here>>>

Shares of Tesla have demonstrated returns of -7.4% over the past month compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.6% change. With a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), TSLA is expected to lag the overall market performance in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .

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