Novartis to Report Q1 Earnings: Will Key Drugs Maintain Momentum?

Novartis AG NVS, a Swiss pharma giant, is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 29, 2025.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $12.86 billion, while the same for earnings is pinned at $2.12 per share. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

NVS’ Earnings Surprise History

Novartis has an excellent track record. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 6.25%. In the previously reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat estimates by 9.39%.

What Our Model Predicts for NVS

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Novartis this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for NVS is +1.26% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $2.12 per share, while the Most Accurate Estimate is pinned at $2.15. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Factors Driving Growth for NVS in Q1

Novartis operates as a single global operating segment after the successful spin-off of the Sandoz business in October 2023. NVS now concentrates on four core therapeutic areas — cardiovascular, renal-metabolic, immunology, neuroscience and oncology.

NVS’ first-quarter sales are likely to have been boosted by strong growth in Kisqali, Kesimpta, Pluvicto, Leqvio, Scemblix and Fabhalta sales.

Cardiovascular drug Entresto sales witnessed a solid year-over-year surge in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by robust demand-led growth, with increased penetration in the United States and Europe following guideline-directed medical therapy in heart failure, as well as in China with increased penetration in hypertension. The momentum is likely to have continued in the first quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Entresto's first-quarter sales are pegged at $2.24 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively.

Cosentyx’s sales have also likely surged, driven by recent launches, including the hidradenitis suppurativa indication (HS) and the intravenous formulation (IV) in the United States, and volume growth in core indications in other geographies.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Cosentyx's first-quarter sales are pegged at $1.57 billion and $1.62 billion, respectively.

Increased demand has likely fueled multiple sclerosis drug Kesimpta’s sales in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Kesimpta's first-quarter sales are pegged at $872 million and $874.6 million, respectively.

The stellar performance of the breast cancer drug Kisqali has likely fueled the top line in the first quarter as well. Strong momentum from the recently launched early breast cancer (eBC) indication in the United States has likely propelled sales further. Overall demand for the drug is being driven by increasing recognition of its overall survival benefit in HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer (mBC) as well as Category 1 NCCN Guidelines recommendation in both mBC and eBC.

Both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Kisqali's first-quarter sales are pegged at $936 million.

Robust sales growth, driven by strong demand in the United States and Europe, has likely fueled Pluvicto’s sales in the first quarter.

Novartis had earlier received approval for Pluvicto's expanded manufacturing capacity at Millburn, NJ. With an unconstrained supply of Pluvicto at present, the company is now focused on initiating new patients.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Pluvicto's first-quarter sales are pegged at $381 million and $385.7 million, respectively.

Strong growth in cholesterol-lowering drug Leqvio, too, has likely fueled sales in the first quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Leqvio's first-quarter sales are pegged at $243 million and $244 million, respectively.

Other growth drivers, such as Jakavi and Tafinlar + Mekinist, have likely witnessed an increase in demand.

Demand for Scemblix for the indication of chronic myeloid leukemia, with continued momentum in the third-line setting and early progress in the frontline setting, boosted sales of the drug in the previous quarter, and the trend must have continued in the first quarter as well.

However, generic competition for Tasigna has likely affected sales, as in the previous quarters.

Key Recent Events

In February 2025, Novartis entered into an agreement to acquire Boston-based, privately held, clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company Anthos Therapeutics, Inc., for an upfront payment of $925 million.

The acquisition will add late-stage pipeline candidate, abelacimab, to NVS’ pipeline. The candidate is in development for the prevention of stroke and systemic embolism in patients with atrial fibrillation.

NVS’ Price Performance

Shares of Novartis have gained 16.6% year to date against the industry’s 2.4% decline.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other biotech stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX has an Earnings ESP of +1.49% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

VRTX beat on earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in the remaining two, the average surprise being 2.58%. The company will report first-quarter results on May 5, 2025.

Gilead Sciences, Inc. GILD has an Earnings ESP of +3.07% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. GILD beat on earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 19.47%. The company is scheduled to report first-quarter results on April 24, 2025.

AstraZeneca AZN has an Earnings ESP of +2.73% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

AZN is scheduled to release first-quarter results on April 29, 2025. AstraZeneca beat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the remaining one, the average surprise being 3.16%.

 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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