Union Pacific to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Union Pacific Corporation UNP is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 24, before market open.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 2.15% downward in the past 60 days and is pegged at $2.73 per share. Additionally, the consensus mark implies a 1.5% uptick from the year-ago actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $6.09 billion, indicating a 0.9% upside from the year-ago actual.

UNP has an impressive earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark in the remaining quarter, the average beat being 3.4%.

Union Pacific Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Union Pacific Corporation price-eps-surprise | Union Pacific Corporation Quote

Factors to Note Ahead of UNP’s Q1 Earnings Release

We expect United Pacific's performance in the to-be-reported period to have been adversely affected by the woes of the freight market downturn and a soft consumer market. Our estimate for freight revenues is pegged at $5.7 billion, which indicates a decline from the fourth-quarter 2024 actuals. Meanwhile, estimates for other revenues are pegged at $350.4 million, calling for a 5.5% increase from the fourth-quarter 2024 actuals.

UNP’s efforts to cut costs to combat revenue woes are expected to have aided bottom-line performance in the quarter to be reported. Due to cost cuts and improved operational efficiency, we expect operating expenses to have declined 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025 from the year-ago actuals. Due to reduced costs, we expect the operating ratio (operating expenses as a percentage of revenues) to have improved 60 basis points to 60.6% in the March quarter. A lower value of the metric is preferable.

Q1 Earnings Whispers for UNP

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for UNP this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

The company's Earnings ESP is -0.05%. UNP currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Highlights of UNP’s Q4 Results

Union Pacific's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings of $2.91 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.78 per share. The bottom line improved 7.4% on a year-over-year basis due to strong operational efficiency and favorable pricing.

Operating revenues of $6.12 billion marginally lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.15 billion. The top line declined 0.6% on a year-over-year basis due to lower fuel surcharge revenues, an unfavorable business mix and lower other revenues.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

C.H. Robinson (CHRW) has an Earnings ESP of +1.37% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. CHRW is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on April 30. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 18.6% upward over the past year. CHRW’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 21.7%. 

Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) has an Earnings ESP of +3.76% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. EXPD is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 6.  

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 11.11% upward over the past year. EXPD’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 11.6%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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