United Parcel Service Transitions to Growth: Accumulation Begins

The long-awaited bottom in United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) stock is in, and the rebound is underway. Supported by results, improved operational quality, and an outlook for growth, the rebound will be substantial for long-term holders. The UPS market, long plagued by distributive activity and downward price pressure from analysts, is back in an accumulation posture, likely to strengthen as the year progresses. 

Analysts and Institutions Have Shifted to Bullish

The posture shift is evident in analyst activity. The analyst group rates the stock a consensus Hold and started raising their price targets in late 2025.

The shift to bullish revisions persisted into the first weeks of 2026 and is likely to strengthen now that the 2026 guidance is in.

The company forecasted $89.7 billion in net revenue, approximately 300 basis points above MarketBeat’s reported consensus, expecting growth a full year earlier than previously anticipated. Margins are also expected to remain strong, suggesting a leveraged earnings rebound is also at hand. 

Institutional activity is also bullish, as the group owns a substantial 60% of this high-yielding stock and bought on balance in Q4 2025.  Institutional sales were also recorded, aligning with a fresh low in UPS stock; however, a late-quarter shift to accumulation has extended into January 2026 and is likely to strengthen as the year progresses. In addition to growth, the Q4 2025 strengths and 2026 guidance underpin a healthy capital return program and its reliability for investors. 

Dividend Strength and Buybacks Reward Investors

The stock, trading near COVID-19-era lows, yields more than 6% and is expected to sustain distribution increases in the coming years. The 2026 guidance forecasts payments to be slightly higher than in 2025, suggesting another low-single-digit increase is ahead. Additionally, buybacks reduced the count by approximately 0.7% in 2025 and are expected to continue to reduce it in 2026. 

UPS Accelerates Stock Reversal With Strong Results

UPS had a good Q4 despite posting a net contraction.

The 3.2% revenue decline was less than expected, outperforming by nearly half a billion dollars, with strength in revenue per package and international markets offsetting domestic volume and supply chain solutions weakness.

Adjusted operating margin also contracted, as expected, but aligned with forecasts, leaving earnings above consensus by a comparable amount. 

The opportunity for investors is to get into this stock early in the rebound.

The outlook for earnings, potential for outperformance, and shifting analyst posture all suggest a cycle of outperformance and bullish revisions is at hand.

In this scenario, UPS stock could easily move to the high-end of the early 2026 target range, a move worth 40% from the pre-release close, as upgrades and bullish price target revisions drive market appetite. 

UPS Advances Following Strong 2026 Guide

UPS stock edged higher following its 2026 guide, indicating the presence of support near its 30-day exponential moving average. The EMA is moving higher, along with the 150-day EMA, following a Golden Crossover that formed in December 2025. The signal aligns with shifting market conditions and accumulation, and is a likely target for strong support. Assuming this EMA and the cluster of EMA’s continues to provide support, it is only a matter of time before a more substantial price rebound is experienced. 

Catalysts in 2026 will include persistent growth, outperformance, and margin recovery. The company’s lean into digitization, automation, and AI is expected to gain traction and compound as business quality improves. The Amazon-related volume glide-down is expected to stabilize as business mix shifts toward higher-margin, higher-quality consumer and business traffic. Industry-specific focus, such as with healthcare, is also expected to drive strength. UPS focuses on healthcare by targeting specialized, time and temperature-sensitive transportation solutions.

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The article "United Parcel Service Transitions to Growth: Accumulation Begins" first appeared on MarketBeat.