Invesco Mortgage Set to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. IVR is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 29, 2026, after market close. The company’s quarterly earnings available for distribution per common share are expected to have increased year over year.

In the last reported quarter, this mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT), which invests in finances and manages mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and other mortgage-related assets, posted earnings available for distribution per common share of 58 cents. 

Notably, IVR has a disappointing earnings surprise history. Over the past four quarters, the company delivered an average negative earnings surprise of 0.61%.

INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC Price and EPS Surprise

INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC price-eps-surprise | INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC Quote

Let us see how things have shaped up before the fourth-quarter results.

Factors at Play for IVR

The mREIT sector witnessed a favorable scenario in the fourth quarter, owing to the lower volatility in the fixed-income markets. This is likely to have driven mortgage spreads tighter, thus improving IVR’s book value per share.

The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates twice in the fourth quarter. Hence, mortgage rates dropped notably, with the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage declining to below 6% range. This is likely to have resulted in a marginal rise in mortgage demand. Supported by lower mortgage rates, refinancing activities and Origination volume witnessed decent growth. Amid this, a significant portion of Invesco Mortgage’s MBS (mortgage-backed securities) holdings are anticipated to have witnessed elevated levels of constant prepayment rate. This is expected to have led to a modest uptick in mortgage servicing rights amortization in the quarter under review. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has been unchanged at 58 cents over the past month. It suggests a rise of 9.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for IVR

According to the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Invesco Mortgage is 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: Invesco Mortgage currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Release Dates of Other REITs

The Earnings ESP for Equity Residential EQR is +0.64% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is also likely to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 5. 

Over the past week, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EQR’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at 28 cents per share.

NETSTREIT Corp. NTST is expected to release fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 10. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.51% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. 

Quarterly earnings estimates for NTST have been unchanged at 33 cents per share over the past week.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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