On Tuesday, United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $24.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.38, beating the $2.20 estimate.
For 2026, UPS forecasts revenue of about $89.7 billion, above the $87.938 billion analyst estimate, and a non-GAAP adjusted operating margin of about 9.6%.
Analyst Take
B of A Securities analyst Ken Hoexter raised the price forecast for United Parcel Service from $114.00 to $118.00, while keeping a Neutral rating.
The analyst writes that UPS reported quarterly EPS of $2.38, above BofA’s estimates of $2.25.
Moreover, the analyst says that seasonal shifts and high early-year expenses imply a ~47% drop in EBIT from the fourth quarter to the first quarter, the largest since 2020.
Also, UPS forecasts capex at $3 billion (down from $3.7 billion in 2025, 3.3% of revenue), the lowest in decades, on swapping 15 B767 aircraft purchases for leases, saving $1.5 billion in cash, adds the analyst.
In 2025, the company cut $3.5 billion in costs, retired the MD11 fleet, reduced 48,000 roles, and closed 93 facilities to offset Amazon volume losses, USPS disruptions, and tariff impacts, notes the analyst.
For 2026, UPS plans another $3 billion in savings, 30,000 job cuts, and 24 facility closures, writes the analyst.
Hoexter cut first-quarter EPS estimates to $1.20 from $1.55, while keeping FY26 estimates at $7.10.
Meanwhile, the analyst raised EPS estimates to $8.10 from $8.00 for FY27 and expects FY28 EPS at $8.90.
UPS Price Action: United Parcel Service shares were down 2.10% at $104.94 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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