What's in Store for Phillips 66 This Q1 Earnings Season?

Phillips 66 PSX is set to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on April 25, before the opening bell.

Let us delve into the factors that are likely to have affected this diversified energy player’s quarterly performance. However, before that, it would be worth reviewing PSX’s performance in the previous quarter.

Highlights of Q4 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted loss of 15 cents per share was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 20 cents due to higher renewable fuel margins and reduced total costs and expenses. Reduced contributions from the Refining segment partially offset this due to a decline in realized margins. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

PSX’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same once, delivering an average surprise of 12.95%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Phillips 66 Price and EPS Surprise

Phillips 66 price-eps-surprise | Phillips 66 Quote

Estimate Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share of 42 cents has witnessed two upward and five downward movements over the past 30 days. The estimated figure suggests a decline of 77.9% from the year-ago reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of $30.67 billion indicates a 15.8% decrease from the year-ago reported figure.

Factors to Consider

PSX is likely to have maintained a stable performance as demand for gasoline in the United States remained resilient during the first quarter of 2025. However, challenges like regional supply imbalances and demand fluctuations might have posed headwinds globally.

A decline in refining margins, as evidenced by recent EIA data showing softer gasoline and distillate crack spreads, could put pressure on its refining business, which is a significant revenue driver. Additionally, crude oil prices dropped during the quarter, especially in March.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration show that the average spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude at Cushing, OK, was $68.24 per barrel in March 2025, down from $81.28 in the comparable period of 2024. While lower oil prices can occasionally benefit refiners, they can also reduce revenues in other areas of PSX's diverse portfolio, particularly in its Midstream and Marketing segments.

Volatility in natural gas prices, which are a key input for refining operations, might have squeezed margins if the company faced higher energy costs without sufficient pricing power in the downstream market. Our model predicts adjusted pre-tax income from the refining business to have declined almost 72% year over year in the first quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not indicate an earnings beat for Phillips 66 this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: PSX’s Earnings ESP is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Comstock Resources, Inc. CRK has an Earnings ESP of +22.33% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Comstock Resources is scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on April 30. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRK’s earnings is pegged at 15 cents per share, which indicates a 600% year-over-year improvement.

Enbridge Inc. ENB currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.06% and a Zacks Rank #3.

ENB is scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on May 09. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 66 cents per share, suggesting a 2.94% decrease from the prior-year reported figure.

Antero Resources Corporation (AR) currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.65% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Antero Resources is scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on April 30. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AR’s earnings is pegged at 83 cents per share, suggesting a 1085% improvement from the prior-year reported figure.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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