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Exxon's Production Boom Blunts Impact Of Falling Oil Prices

By Lekha Gupta | January 30, 2026, 10:08 AM

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) stock fell Friday after the company reported fourth-quarter 2025 results.

The company's total revenues of $82.3 billion beat the consensus forecast of $81.5 billion.

ExxonMobil generated $12.7 billion in cash flow from operations and adjusted free cash flow of $5.6 billion for the quarter, ending the year with a cash balance of $10.7 billion.

The company posted adjusted EPS of $1.71 per share, topping analyst expectations of $1.67.

Cash capital expenditure stood at $8.1 billion in the quarter.

In the quarter, Upstream net production reached roughly 5.0 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, with record outputs from key assets, including 1.8 million barrels per day in the Permian and nearly 875,000 gross barrels per day in Guyana.

Segment Performance

The Upstream segment reported fourth-quarter earnings of $3.5 billion, a decrease from the previous quarter, primarily due to weak crude realizations and seasonally higher expenses.

Energy Products earnings rose 80% from the third quarter to $3.4 billion, fueled by stronger industry refining margins from higher diesel and gasoline crack spreads, asset sales gains, favorable year-end inventory effects, record North America refinery throughput, and volume growth from advantaged projects.

ExxonMobil posted Chemical Products' loss of $281 million from earnings of $796 million in the prior quarter, owing to lower margins, impairment-related charges, and higher seasonal expenses.

Specialty Products' earnings declined by $58 million sequentially to $682 million due to higher seasonal expenses.

Dividend & Share Repurchase

The company declared a first-quarter dividend of $1.03 per share, payable on March 10, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 12, 2026.

The company's financial strength supported the distribution of $37.2 billion to shareholders, including $17.2 billion in dividends and $20.0 billion in share repurchases in the year.

ExxonMobil plans to buyback $20 billion of shares through 2026.

Since 2019, the company has achieved $15.1 billion in cumulative structural cost savings, including $3.0 billion in 2025.

Outlook

For the first quarter, ExxonMobil expects upstream volumes to be 100,000–200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day lower, mainly due to timing effects, downtime, and the absence of favorable entitlements.

The company anticipates upstream production of around 4.9 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in 2026.

The company expects cash capital expenditures of $27 billion-$29 billion in 2026.

The company sees ~$25 billion earnings growth and ~$35 billion cash flow growth from 2024-2030.

ExxonMobil now expects to reach cost savings of $20 billion by 2030.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Exxon Mobil and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) posted their lowest annual profits since 2021, pressured by a global oversupply of crude that has weighed on oil prices. Both companies also saw fourth-quarter earnings decline year over year despite higher production.

XOM Price Action: Exxon Mobil shares were trading at $138.50 at the time of publication on Friday. The stock is approaching its 52-week high of $142.34, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Photo by Kirkam via Shutterstock

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