The silver market in 2026 feels less like a traditional commodity rally and more like a meme stock frenzy, full of volatility and driven by retail investors.
BofA Securities commodities strategist Francisco Blanch has noted that silver has effectively disengaged from its underlying fundamentals, driven by a wave of retail enthusiasm and structural shifts.
$60 Vs. The Spot Reality
If silver were trading based strictly on historical industrial demand and traditional economic models, it would be priced at approximately $60 per ounce, according to BofA.
However, the price of silver has blown past those levels, driven by ETF inflows and retail investors, Blanch said.
More silver options than Nasdaq options were traded on Thursday, indicating heavy participation from retail investors, Blanch noted.
Also on Thursday, more than $25 billion was traded in the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV), which holds $60 billion in assets, according to Benzinga Pro.
The SLV has gained more than 38% since the beginning of the year, even after this week's losses.
Leveraged silver ETFs, including ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSE:AGQ) and ProShares UltraShort Silver (NYSE:ZSL), have been on a wild ride as they are structured to move twice as quickly in either direction.
The Path to $170
Blanch suggested that a $170 per ounce target for silver is achievable in his blue sky scenario within a two-year horizon, if retail participation continues at its exponential rate.
In January 2026 alone, silver surged 45% before pulling back, with premiums on physical coins in some markets already crossing the $170 threshold, according to CNBC.
The $170 target depends on a perfect storm of retail buying and a return of the gold-to-silver ratio to historical lows (approx. 32:1).
However, current volatility suggests the price of silver is currently being driven more by social sentiment than by the silver mine balance sheet.
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