ILMN Q4 Earnings Preview: NovaSeq X Momentum Likely to Aid Performance

Illumina, Inc. ILMN is set to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 5, after the closing bell.

The company posted adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.34 in the last reported quarter, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15.5%. Illumina beat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 6.68%.

ILMN’s Q4 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.16 billion, which suggests 4.6% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pinned at $1.26 per share, which implies a 46.5% rise from the year-ago recorded actuals.

Estimate Revision Trend Ahead of ILMN’s Q4 Earnings

Estimates for fourth-quarter earnings have climbed 2.4% to $1.26 in the past 30 days.

Here’s a brief overview of the company’s performance leading up to this announcement.

Factors Shaping ILMN’s Q4 Performance

Within the Core Illumina segment, we assume fourth-quarter performance may have been affected by the ongoing macroeconomic challenges, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and reductions in the U.S. government’s funding of the NIH. The company’s largest cost tariff-related exposure is tied to imports from its manufacturing facility in Singapore. Meanwhile, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce lifted its export ban of Illumina’s sequencing instruments into China beginning Nov. 10, though the company remains on the Unreliable Entities List, requiring government approval for instrument purchases.

On a positive note, Illumina is expected to have benefited from the NovaSeq X momentum in the fourth quarter. High-throughput volumes are likely to have continued to rise, supported by strength in clinical markets outside of China, driven by broader adoption of comprehensive genomic profiling and growing use of sequencing-intensive applications like MRD.

Illumina, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Illumina, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Illumina, Inc. Quote

In the third quarter, the company exceeded its goal of reaching approximately 75% of high-throughput gigabases shipped and 50% of high-throughput revenues on the X platform by 2025-end. Such strength and elasticity of sequencing demand are likely to have extended into the fourth quarter as well.

However, ongoing funding uncertainty and pricing dynamics tied to the X transition are likely to have continued to affect the research and applied customers outside of China, impacting sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects Sequencing Consumables revenues to increase 3.2% year over year in the fourth quarter.

Sequencing Instruments’ revenues may have benefited from the broader adoption of the MiSeq i100 in low-throughput. Illumina may have continued to track in line with the quarterly range of 50-60 NovaSeq X placements. That said, revenues may have been impacted in Greater China due to restrictions on exportation. Going by the Zacks Consensus Estimate, Sequencing Instruments’ revenues are likely to fall 12.2% year over year.

Meanwhile, Sequencing service and other revenues are expected to have gained from the timing of certain strategic partnership revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects 7% year-over-year growth.

Illumina is also likely to have continued its strategic execution, focusing on growing its core sequencing business, scaling into multiomics, and expanding services, data and software capabilities. Following the global commercial launch in September 2025, the Illumina Protein Prep assay now delivers the broadest coverage of the blood proteome on the market at the lowest cost per protein target for more than 40 customers across 16 sites globally.

In October, the company launched its novel 5-base solution, significantly advancing in scalable multiomic analysis. Illumina also introduced BioInsight, a new business to meet industry demand for deeper biologic insights driven by the need of researchers and pharma companies to access and interpret ever larger-scale multiomic data. We expect all these developments to have positively impacted revenues in the fourth quarter.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for ILMN

Per our proven model, stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), along with a positive Earnings ESP, have a higher chance of beating estimates, which is exactly the case here, as you can see below:

Earnings ESP: Illumina has an Earnings ESP of +2.25%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks Worth a Look

Here are some other medical stocks worth considering, as these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:

Veracyte VCYT has an Earnings ESP of +7.98% and a Zacks Rank #1. The company is expected to release fourth-quarter 2025 results soon.

VCYT’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 45.12%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fourth-quarter EPS is expected to increase 13.9% from the year-ago quarter figure.

Cardinal Health CAH has an Earnings ESP of +0.46% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is slated to release second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Feb. 5. 

CAH’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 9.36%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAH’s fourth-quarter EPS is expected to surge 20.7% from the year-ago reported figure.

Merit Medical Systems MMSI has an Earnings ESP of +2.09% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 24.

MMSI’s earnings topped estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 14.1%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fourth-quarter EPS is anticipated to increase 3.2% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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