Johnson Controls Set to Report Q1 Earnings: What to Expect?

Johnson Controls International plc JCI is scheduled to release first-quarter fiscal 2026 (ended December 2025) financial numbers on Feb. 4, before market open.

The company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters. The average surprise was 5.6%. In the last reported quarter, its earnings of $1.26 per share beat the consensus estimate of $1.20 by 5%.

The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $5.7 billion, indicating an increase of 4.3% from the year-ago quarter’s figure. The consensus estimate for adjusted earnings is pinned at 84 cents per share, indicating an increase of 31.3% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Key Factors and Estimates to Note Ahead of JCI’s Earnings Release

The Americas segment is expected to have benefited from heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) platforms in data centers and strength in controls businesses. Our estimate for the segment’s revenues is pegged at $3.73 billion, indicating a 35.9% increase from the year-ago figure.

The Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) segment is expected to have benefited from strength in the service, fire and security, and applied HVAC businesses. Our estimate for the segment’s revenues is pegged at $1.27 billion, indicating a 18.2% increase from the year-ago figure.

Solid momentum in the service business and strength in the products and systems business are expected to have supported the performance of the Asia Pacific segment. We expect revenues from the segment to increase 25.4% year over year to $661 million.

However, the escalating selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses are expected to have weighed on Johnson Controls’ bottom line. High organizational realignment and separation costs are expected to have pushed up the SG&A expenses, which are likely to have impacted its margins in the fiscal first quarter.

JCI has considerable exposure to overseas markets. Given the company’s substantial international operations, foreign currency headwinds are likely to have marred its profitability.

Johnson Controls International plc Price and EPS Surprise

Johnson Controls International plc price-eps-surprise | Johnson Controls International plc Quote

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Johnson Controls this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as elaborated below. 

Earnings ESP: JCI has an Earnings ESP of -0.35% as the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at 83 cents per share, which is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 84 cents. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: JCI currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three companies, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.

Ingersoll Rand IR has an Earnings ESP of +0.82% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12.

Ingersoll Rand’s earnings matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice and missed once in the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being a negative 0.34%.

Allegion plc ALLE has an Earnings ESP of +0.21% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 17.

Allegion’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average surprise being 5.9%.

Watts Water Technologies WTS has an Earnings ESP of +0.59% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. The company is slated to release second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Feb. 11.

Watts Water’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 10.9%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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