What's in Store for Mid-America Apartment Stock in Q4 Earnings?

Mid-America Apartment Communities MAA — commonly known as MAA — is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on owning, operating and acquiring apartment communities throughout the Southeast, Southwest and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States. The company is slated to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 4, after market close.

In the last reported quarter, this Germantown, TN-based residential REIT reported core FFO per share of $2.16, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.17. Results reflected a fall in same-store revenues, with average effective rent per unit declining year over year. However, the REIT witnessed low levels of resident turnover.

Over the trailing four quarters, MAA surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on two occasions for as many misses, the average beat being 0.35%. This is depicted in the chart below:

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up before this announcement.

US Apartment Market in Q4

Apartment REIT fundamentals softened in the fourth quarter of 2025 as the sector normalized from the exceptional demand of recent years. According to the RealPage report, the market recorded net move-outs of about 40,400 units during the quarter, marking the first seasonal pullback in three years. Full-year absorption totaled just more than 365,900 units, signaling a return toward long-term leasing trends rather than a demand collapse.

Supply remains the primary pressure point. Approximately 409,500 units were delivered in 2025, including about 89,400 in the fourth quarter, keeping competition elevated despite a sequential slowdown in completions. As a result, occupancy slipped to 94.8%, while effective asking rents declined 1.7% quarter over quarter. Rents dropped 0.6% in the calendar year 2025, extending the year-over-year downturn for a second consecutive quarter. Concessions expanded meaningfully, with more than 23% of units offering incentives averaging 7%, reflecting REITs’ focus on protecting occupancy and cash flow.

Market performance remains uneven. Supply-heavy Sun Belt markets such as Austin, Phoenix and Denver experienced the steepest rent pressure, while coastal and tech-oriented metros, including New York and San Francisco, continued to post rent growth due to tighter supply.

Factors to Consider Ahead of MAA’s Upcoming Results

MAA has broad exposure to the Sunbelt region, which has been benefiting from strong rental demand across its markets. The region's pro-business environment, attractive tax structure and relatively lower urban density support job creation and population inflows, contributing to sustained leasing momentum. The company is also expected to have gained from its portfolio revamp efforts.

However, MAA is not likely to have been spared from the current market backdrop. Although the market is witnessing early signs of recovery with better lease-over-lease rates on renewals, the struggle to lure renters is expected to have persisted in the fourth quarter, as supply volumes remained elevated in several Sunbelt markets. This is expected to have put pressure on rent growth, affected new lease rates and kept concession levels elevated.

In an investor relations update released in December, MAA noted that the accepted rate for renewals through December remained in the 4.5%-4.9% range. Historic low turnover has helped occupancy, with the company experiencing strong November QTD occupancy of 95.7% vs. 95.5% for the same period in the prior year.

Projections for MAA

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $557.62 million. This suggests a 1.42% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

For the fourth quarter, we project an average physical occupancy of 95.7%, up 10 basis points from the prior quarter. However, we expect same-store property net operating income to fall 1.7% year over year. Our estimate indicates a 3.8% year-over-year increase in the company’s interest expenses.

MAA projected fourth-quarter 2025 core FFO per share in the band of $2.17-$2.29, with $2.23 at the midpoint. Before the fourth-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were not adequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly core FFO per share has been revised a cent south to $2.22 in the past month. This also suggests a year-over-year decline of 0.45%.

For full-year 2025, MAA expected core FFO per share in the range of $8.68-$8.80, with the midpoint at $8.74. For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for core FFO per share has been revised a cent south over the past month to $8.72. The figure indicates a 1.80% decrease year over year in revenues of $2.21 billion.

For 2025, management anticipated same-store property revenue growth of -0.25% to 0.15%, with the midpoint being -0.05%. Operating expense growth is expected in the range of 1.80%-2.60%, with the midpoint of 2.20%. As a result, the same-store NOI is anticipated to decrease between 1.85% and 0.85%, with the midpoint reflecting a drop of 1.35%.

Here Is What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for MAA

Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for MAA this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is not the case here.

MAA currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) and has an Earnings ESP of -0.29%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are two stocks from the residential REIT sector — Equity Residential EQR and UDR Inc. UDR — that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.

Equity Residential, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Feb. 5, has an Earnings ESP of +0.64% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

UDR is slated to report quarterly numbers on Feb. 9. It has an Earnings ESP of +0.74% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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