A documentary about First Lady Melania Trump surpassed most estimates for its opening box office revenue. Here's a look at what may have helped the film's success, why the film can't be called a success story for Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) yet, and the early international box office figures being turned in.
“Melania” Box Office Performance
‘Melania' grossed an estimated $7 million in its opening weekend, which beat expectations that were in the $2 to $5 million range. The film also posted one of the best opening weekends for a documentary in decades.
The film was helped by several items that may not have been factored enough into estimates. ‘Melania' performed well in Republican states and rural small-town areas, as reported by Deadline.
Also helping the film was a mostly female audience, with some groups attending the film together. Women made up 72% of the audience, with people aged 55 or older also representing a large percentage of the film's audience. Overall, it was older women in small towns that helped propel the film's box office.
The film outperformed in states like Texas and Florida, where President Donald Trump has performed well in elections. Big cities such as New York and Los Angeles saw the film underperform.
Amazon spent $35 million on the marketing efforts of the film, which included buying ads on social media platform X, putting an ad on the outside of the iconic Las Vegas Sphere venue and buying prime advertising slots during NFL Playoff games before the film's release.
Also likely helping the film's marketing was tweets made by Trump multiple times before the film's Friday premiere and X owner Elon Musk retweeting a post about the film. Trump and Musk are two of the most followed accounts on X and their sharing of the post was huge marketing for the film.
Amazon Likely Won't Make A Profit From The Film
While "Melania" may have outperformed in its opening weekend, now comes the even tougher part: staying power. The film opened in more than 1,700 locations in the U.S., a large number for a documentary.
The film is likely to get pushed out and play in fewer theaters next weekend. The fanfare is also likely over and the film could gross significantly less in its second weekend.
Critic ratings and word of mouth also aren't helping. While the film has an "A" score on CinemaScore, the film has a 7% critic rating on RottenTomatoes and a 1.3 out of 10 rating on IMDb.
Amazon paid $40 million for the rights to the film, which includes streaming rights, before it shelled out the additional $35 million on marketing. It's hard to imagine a scenario where the film ends up making the $75 million back.
The film could gain popularity once it hits the Prime Video streaming platform, but also likely not the kind of needle mover that a series or live sports on a streaming platform has to gain subscribers over time.
Part of Amazon's $35 million in marketing also went towards the international rollout of the film, which, based on early figures, looks like less of a success.
The film grossed $44,960 in the U.K. from 155 cinemas, for an average of around $289 per movie theater, as reported by Deadline. In Italy, the film grossed $7,696 from 94 cinemas, good for an average of $81 per cinema.
While these are early international results, they aren't showing strength for the film or for Amazon.
Headlines will show the film as a success with the $7 million coming in higher than estimates, but for Amazon, the film is far from a success story. The film's legacy could end up being more about the goodwill that Amazon gained with President Trump than any money made off of the documentary.
Photo: Evan El-Amin via Shutterstock
