Alphabet Vs Amazon Stock: Which is the Better Big Tech Investment as Q4 Results Approach?

Markets will receive more quarterly results from the Mag 7 this week, with Alphabet GOOGL and Amazon’s AMZN Q4 reports rolling in after-market hours on Wednesday, February 4, and Thursday, February 5, respectively.

Only Nvidia NVDA will be left to report later in the month. The other four Mag 7 members reported last week, and outside of Meta Platforms META, investors seemed to be somewhat underwhelmed as their growth was overshadowed by reemerging CapEx concerns, as it relates to AI.

Of course, as it relates to Alphabet and Amazon, the individual growth of their cloud services will be closely monitored and hopefully echoes further enhancements from AI.  

With Alphabet’s Google Cloud and Amazon Web Services (AWS) being direct competitors in the global cloud-computing market, let’s see which of these tech giants may be the better investment at the moment.   

Alphabet’s Q4 Expectations

Based on Zacks estimates, Alphabet’s Q4 sales are expected to be up 16% to a new peak of $94.7 billion from $81.62 billion a year ago. As the third largest cloud services provider, Zacks projections call for Alphabet’s Google Cloud revenue to be $16.25 billion, a 36% increase from $11.95 billion in Q4 2024.

On the bottom line, Alphabet’s Q4 EPS is thought to have spiked 20% to $2.58 versus $2.15 a share in the comparative quarter.

It’s noteworthy that Alphabet has surpassed the Zacks EPS Consensus for 11 consecutive quarters with a very impressive average earnings surprise of 18.74% in its last four quarterly reports.

Amazon’s Q4 Expectations

Pivoting to Amazon, Q4 sales are expected to come in at a record $211.56 billion, a 12% increase from $187.79 billion last year. Being the largest global cloud provider, AWS revenue is expected to be $35.02 billion, a 21% increase from $28.78 billion in the comparative quarter.

Amazon’s Q4 EPS is expected to rise 6% to $1.98 versus $1.86 per share a year ago.

Notably, Amazon has exceeded EPS expectations for 12 straight quarters with a remarkable average earnings surprise of 22.47% in its last four quarterly reports. 

Performance & P/E Comparison

After implementing 20-1 stock splits in 2022, respectively, Alphabet and Amazon stock had largely mirrored each other in price performance in a steady ascension above the $200 a share level. When one bounced higher, the other usually followed.

However, over the last year, Alphabet stock has taken off, surging more than +80% and now up +230% in the last three years. The rally has been attributed to growth in Alphabet’s AI-driven businesses, including momentum in Google Cloud and strong advertising recovery.

On the other hand, Amazon shares have seen a stagnant performance, falling 2% over the last year despite a three-year return of +130%. The pullback is due to key segments like AWS seeing slower revenue growth amid lofty expectations.

That said, after historically trading at a noticeable P/E premium to its cloud services peer, Amazon stock currently trades under $240 a share and at 30.7X forward earnings compared to Alphabet’s 31X, with a price tag near $340.

EPS Growth Projections

Magnifying the $100 difference in their stock pricing and a slight P/E discount is that Amazon’s EPS growth projections are slightly higher for fiscal 2026 (10%), with FY25 EPS now expected to be up nearly 30% to $7.18.

Although Alphabet’s annual earnings are slated to expand over 31% to $10.57 per share, FY26 EPS is projected to rise a modest 5%.

Bottom Line

Hopefully, both of these tech giants can post strong Q4 results that help offset CapEx concerns among the Mag 7.

If they are able to do so, more upside appears to favor Amazon stock, which currently sports a Zack Rank #2 (Buy), with Alphabet shares landing a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) after such an extensive rally.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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