Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' Could Drive A 15% Earnings Boom In 2026 As US Manufacturing Roars Back, Says Analyst

A massive wave of supply-side incentives and direct stimulus is set to propel the U.S. economy toward a 15% earnings growth surge in 2026, says Jason Trennert, CEO of Strategas Research Partners, as tax provisions ignite a domestic manufacturing renaissance.

Stimulus Meets Industrial Growth

Speaking on the Real Eisman Playbook, Trennert highlighted President Donald Trump‘s “one big beautiful bill” as the primary catalyst for economic resilience in 2026.

This legislation is expected to inject approximately $150 billion into the system via tax refunds and immediate stimulus. Beyond consumer spending, the bill's “supply-side” provisions are designed to overhaul the U.S. industrial landscape.

Specifically, new rules allow companies to write off the entire cost of building a domestic factory immediately, rather than depreciating the expense over a decade.

Trennert suggests this will compel CEOs to shift from financial engineering, such as stock buybacks, toward “real engineering” and capital spending.

A Confluence Of Tailwinds

The optimistic 14% to 15% earnings growth projection is supported by a unique alignment of cultural and economic events. Trennert also points to the 250th anniversary of the United States and the hosting of the World Cup as significant drivers of domestic activity.

With real GDP projected at 3% and inflation hovering around 2.5%, the resulting 5.5% nominal GDP creates a “sanguine” environment for 2026.

These factors make a near-term recession unlikely, though experts remain watchful regarding whether these capital investments can stay ahead of inflationary pressures as the calendar turns to 2027.

Shifting Market Leadership

This industrial-heavy growth marks a departure from the tech-dominated rallies of previous years. As populism remains a dominant political force, investors are pivoting toward “hard assets” like materials, gold, and farmland.

While the Federal Reserve‘s inflated balance sheet continues to provide a “backstop” for valuations, the underlying engine of the 2026 market appears to be rooted in physical infrastructure.

The shift suggests that for the average investor, the most significant opportunities may lie in the sectors building the nation’s tangible future.

Benchmark Indices Remain Positive In 2026

The top U.S. indices have advanced on a year-to-date basis, as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices have gained 0.87% and 1.77%, respectively. However, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index was up only 0.08% during this period.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were higher in premarket on Wednesday. The SPY was up 0.22% at $691.04, while the QQQ advanced 0.086% to $617.05.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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