AstraZeneca to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

AstraZeneca AZN is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 10, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 4.39%

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly sales is pegged at $15.71 billion, while that for earnings is pinned at $2.18 per share.

Factors Shaping AZN’s Upcoming Results

Sales of AstraZeneca’s key medicines, mainly cancer drugs — Calquence, Lynparza, Tagrisso and Imfinzi — and diabetes medicine Farxiga/Forxiga are expected to have driven the company’s fourth-quarter sales, backed by strong demand trends.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Calquence, Lynparza, Tagrisso, Imfinzi and Farxiga/Forxiga is pegged at $916 million, $881 million, $1.88 billion, $1.67 billion and $2.01 billion, respectively.

AstraZeneca markets Lynparza in partnership with Merck MRK under an agreement signed in 2017. This Merck-partnered drug is approved for four cancer types — ovarian, breast, prostate and pancreatic.

The company’s other drugs, namely asthma drug Fasenra, the triple combo COPD treatment Breztri and lupus drug Saphnelo, are also likely to have contributed to sales growth in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. Sales of key respiratory medicine, Symbicort, are likely to have risen despite ongoing brand price pressure in the United States and continued generic erosion in Europe.

The Zacks Consensus Estimates for Symbicort and Fasenra are pegged at $696 million and $544 million, respectively.

Sales in AstraZeneca’s Rare Disease drugs have registered significant growth in recent quarters on the back of solid demand and geographic expansions for Ultomiris and Strensiq. This trend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.

Collaboration and alliance revenues are expected to have been an essential contributor to the top line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for alliance revenues is pegged at $916 million, while that for collaboration revenues is pegged at $174 million.

We expect the company to report a rise in core operating costs during the quarter, driven by investment in recent product launches and increased expenses in starting new clinical studies on pipeline advancements.

AZN’s Earnings Surprise History

The firm’s performance has been decent over the past four quarters. Its earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark on one occasion, delivering an average surprise of 3.81%.

AstraZeneca PLC Price and EPS Surprise

AstraZeneca PLC price-eps-surprise | AstraZeneca PLC Quote

In the past year, AstraZeneca’s shares have surged more than 32% compared with the industry’s 29% growth.

What Our Model Predicts for AZN

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for AstraZeneca this time around. The combinationofa positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: AstraZeneca has an Earnings ESP of -4.59%. The Most Accurate Estimate stands at $2.08 per share, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $2.18.

Zacks Rank: AZN currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks With Favorable Combinations

Here are some drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Castle Biosciences CSTL has an Earnings ESP of +80.95% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present.

Shares of CSTL have risen more than 24% in the past year. The company’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, while missing the same on the remaining occasion. Castle Biosciences delivered an average surprise of 66.11%.

Moderna MRNA has an Earnings ESP of +3.16% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Shares of MRNA have risen over 22% in the past year. The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 31.45%. Moderna is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 13.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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