Pre-Q4 Earnings: Should Spotify Stock be in Your Portfolio?

Spotify Technology S.A. SPOT is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 10, before the bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in the to-be-reported quarter stands at $2.95 per share, indicating 57% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $5.16 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 14%.

Three estimates for the to-be-reported quarter moved up over the past 60 days versus one downward revision.

SPOT’s earnings surprise history has not been impressive. Earnings lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the four trailing quarters and surpassed once, the average negative surprise being 17.6%.

Earnings Whispers

Our model predicts a likely earnings beat for SPOT this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

SOFI has an Earnings ESP of +12.83% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Shaping Upcoming Results

The growth of subscribers and monthly active users (MAU) is likely to have benefited the top line in the to-be-reported quarter, directly benefiting the bottom line as well.

The consensus estimate for total MAUs is pegged at 745.4 million, indicating year-over-year growth of 10.4%. The consensus estimate for total ad-supported MAUs stands at 470 million, suggesting year-over-year growth of 10.6%. The consensus mark for premium subscribers stands at 289.3 million, implying year-over-year growth of 10%.

Price Dynamics and Valuation

SPOT has declined 34% over the past year and 33% over the past three months. However, the sell-off has failed to make valuations compelling. Even after the steep correction, the stock continues to trade at a higher forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple of 30x versus the industry average of 28.5x, suggesting it remains far from inexpensive.

A Wait-and-Watch Stance Ahead of Earnings

Spotify’s recent performance supports a Hold stance rather than an aggressive shift in positioning. The company continues to make progress on operational discipline and long-term profitability, but near-term upside appears balanced by execution and competitive considerations. With expectations now better aligned to fundamentals, the risk-reward profile looks more even than compelling. Maintaining a hold allows investors to stay exposed to Spotify’s improving business model while waiting for clearer confirmation that recent gains can be sustained. Given the current setup, patience is warranted. A hold rating reflects confidence in the company’s direction, without ignoring the need for further consistency before increasing exposure.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a few other stocks that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around.

TransUnion TRU: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pinned at $1.1 billion, indicating a 9.7% increase from the year-ago quarter’s actual. For earnings, the consensus mark is pegged at $1.03 per share, suggesting a 6.2% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. TRU surpassed the consensus estimate in the trailing four quarters, with an average beat of 5.8%.

It has an Earnings ESP of +1.61% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. TRU is scheduled to declare fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12.

Bausch Health BHC: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pinned at $2.7 billion, suggesting growth of 5.7% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. For earnings, the consensus mark is set at $1.21 per share, hinting at a 5.2% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. BHC beat the consensus estimate for earnings in two of the four quarters and missed twice, with an average negative surprise of 6.3%.

BHC has an Earnings ESP of +0.69% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is scheduled to declare fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 18.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research