Will These 5 Drug Bigwigs Surpass Q4 Earnings Forecasts?

The fourth-quarter earnings season continues to be in full swing this week, with many large drugmakers like AstraZeneca AZN, Incyte INCY, Gilead Sciences GILD, Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX and Moderna MRNA, among others, due to announce results.

Several bigwigs like J&J, Lilly, AbbVie, Biogen, Merck and Amgen reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, beating estimates for both earnings and revenues. Novartis and Sanofi reported mixed fourth-quarter results, with earnings beating estimates and revenues missing the same.

Per the Zacks classification, the pharma/biotech industry falls under the broader Medical sector, comprising pharma/biotech and generic companies, and medical device companies.

Per the Earnings Trends report, as of Feb. 4, 40% of the companies in the Medical sector — representing 73.9% of the sector’s market capitalization — reported quarterly earnings. Out of these, 87.5% surpassed earnings estimates, while 75% beat the same for revenues. Earnings increased 3.3% year over year, while revenues rose 9.5%. Overall, fourth-quarter earnings of the Medical sector are expected to decrease 1.5%, while sales are projected to rise 9.1% from the year-ago quarter.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for these companies ahead of their earnings announcements.

AstraZeneca

AstraZeneca’s performance has been mixed over the past four quarters. Its earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters, met the same once and missed the mark on one occasion, delivering an average surprise of 3.81%. In the last reported quarter, AZN delivered an earnings surprise of 4.39%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter sales is pegged at $15.78 billion, while the same for earnings is pinned at $2.18 per share.

Per our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

AstraZeneca has an Earnings ESP of -4.59% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Sales of AstraZeneca’s key medicines, mainly cancer drugs — Calquence, Lynparza, Tagrisso and Imfinzi — and diabetes medicine Farxiga/Forxiga are expected to have driven the company’s fourth-quarter sales, backed by strong demand trends. The company’s other drugs, namely asthma drug Fasenra, the triple combo COPD treatment Breztri and lupus drug Saphnelo, are also likely to have contributed to sales growth in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

AZN is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 10, before the opening bell.

AstraZeneca PLC Price and EPS Surprise

AstraZeneca PLC price-eps-surprise | AstraZeneca PLC Quote

Incyte

Incyte has a mixed history of earnings surprises. The company beat earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, while missing the same on the remaining occasion, delivering an average surprise of 14.35%. In the last reported quarter, INCY posted an earnings surprise of 36.14%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter sales is pegged at $1.35 billion, while the same for earnings is pinned at $1.94 per share.

INCY has an Earnings ESP of +3.69% and a Zacks Rank #3, indicating a likely positive earnings surprise this time around.

Incyte’s fourth-quarter revenues are likely to have been driven by strong Jakafi sales, a first-in-class JAK1/JAK2 inhibitor, across all approved indications, as well as from the sales of other marketed drugs.

In the to-be-reported quarter, INCY expects Opzelura sales to grow, driven by continued increases in new patient starts and refills in the United States and increased contribution from the EU.

INCY is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings on Feb. 10, before the opening bell.

Incyte Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Incyte Corporation price-eps-surprise | Incyte Corporation Quote

Gilead Sciences

Gilead Sciences has a mixed history of earnings surprises. The company beat earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, while missing the same on the remaining occasion, delivering an average surprise of 7.80%. In the last reported quarter, GILD posted an earnings surprise of 14.88%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter sales is pegged at $7.57 billion, while the same for earnings is pinned at $1.83 per share.

GILD has an Earnings ESP of -2.47% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Higher Biktarvy sales and Descovy for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) are likely to have fueled Gilead Sciences' top-line growth during the fourth quarter. Sales from the Liver Disease portfolio are also likely to have increased in the fourth quarter, driven by higher demand for Livdelzi (seladelpar) for treating primary biliary cholangitis on the back of strong commercial execution and some new launches outside the country.

GILD is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 10, after market close.

Gilead Sciences, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Gilead Sciences, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Gilead Sciences, Inc. Quote

Vertex

Vertex has a mixed history of earnings surprises. The company beat earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters, while missing the same on the remaining two occasions, delivering an average surprise of 2.01%. In the last reported quarter, VRTX posted an earnings surprise of 5.49%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter sales is pegged at $3.17 billion, while the same for earnings is pinned at $5.07 per share.

VRTX has an Earnings ESP of +5.38% and a Zacks Rank #3, indicating a likely positive earnings surprise this time around.

Vertex’s revenues in the fourth quarter are likely to have been driven by higher sales of its blockbuster CF medicine, Trikafta/Kaftrio (Trikafta’s brand name in Europe). Incremental sales from its newest CF medicine, Alyftrek, are also likely to have boosted Vertex’s top line in the to-be-reported quarter. Sales from newer drugs, Casgevy and Journavx, are also likely to have aided the company’s top line in the to-be-reported quarter.

VRTX is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 12, after market close.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Quote

Moderna

Moderna has an excellent history of earnings surprises. The company beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 31.45%. In the last reported quarter, MRNA posted an earnings surprise of 76.28%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter sales is pegged at $661.4 million, while the same for the bottom line is pinned at a loss of $2.60 per share.

MRNA has an Earnings ESP of +3.16% and a Zacks Rank #3, indicating a likely positive earnings surprise this time around.

Moderna is likely to have generated a major portion of its revenues in the fourth quarter from the sales of its COVID-19 vaccines, Spikevax and mNexspike. However, sales of the COVID-19 vaccines have declined sharply in recent times due to lower demand following the end of the pandemic. We also expect minimal product sales from its newly launched RSV vaccine, mResvia, in the fourth quarter, due to stiff competition in the RSV vaccine space.

MRNA is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings on Feb. 13, before the opening bell.

Moderna, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Moderna, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Moderna, Inc. Quote

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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