Baxter to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Baxter International Inc. BAX is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15.00%. BAX’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, delivering an average surprise of 9.86%.

Q4 Estimates

The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.79 billion, indicating an improvement of 1.5% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings is pinned at 53 cents per share, implying an 8.6% year-over-year decline.

Our model estimates total revenues from continuing operations to decline 2.7% at constant currency (cc) to $2.79 billion. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to decline 9.3% to 53 cents.

Important Factors to Note

Baxter International’s upcoming quarterly results are likely to reflect a business still navigating near-term operational headwinds, even as pockets of resilience and strategic recalibration begin to take shape. While management has emphasized the company’s long-term potential, recent commentary suggests that execution challenges — particularly in infusion therapies and select pharmaceutical categories — might have continued to weigh on its quarterly performance.

Total revenue growth is expected to have remained muted, pressured by softness in key hospital-based product lines. Management has already acknowledged that top-line performance has trailed earlier expectations, primarily due to issues within the Infusion Therapies & Technologies (“ITT”) division and ongoing IV fluid conservation trends in U.S. hospitals. These factors are likely to have constrained volume growth and limited operating leverage during the fourth quarter, even as pricing discipline and cost controls might have provided some offset.

Within the Medical Products & Therapies (“MPT”) segment, ITT likely remained the primary drag. Sales of infusion pumps are expected to have been negatively impacted by the continued shipment and installation hold on the Novum IQ large volume pump, stemming from unresolved flow-rate issues.

The prolonged nature of this pause likely led to continued lost sales, customer returns, and, in some cases, customer transitions to alternative platforms, including Baxter’s own Spectrum IQ system. U.S. IV solutions demand is yet to normalize following Hurricane Helene, with hospitals maintaining fluid conservation practices. This must have hurt fourth-quarter performance.

Advanced Surgery sales are likely to have been driven by strong demand for hemostats and sealants, coupled with steady procedure volumes and solid commercial execution. This is expected to have supported double-digit growth, helping partially mitigate ITT-related weakness.

Performance in Healthcare Systems & Technologies (HST) is likely to have supported top-line growth on the back of strong order momentum, particularly in Care & Connectivity Solutions, where U.S. capital orders are growing sharply.

Surgical Solutions, patient support systems and care communications are likely to have benefited from sustained hospital capital spending. However, higher tariff-related costs, increased R&D investment, and a heavier corporate cost allocation following the Kidney Care divestiture are likely to have constrained margin expansion in the segment.

In Pharmaceuticals, quarterly results are likely to be mixed. While drug compounding sales are likely to reflect solid growth, particularly outside the United States, Injectables & Anesthesia might have faced challenges due to softness in premix products. Shifts in hospital protocols toward IV push administration and unfavorable product mix are expected to have pressured both revenue growth and margins.

Adjusted EPS growth might have gained from lower interest expense following debt paydown and discrete tax benefits, though underlying operating performance likely remained subdued.

Baxter International Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Baxter International Inc. price-eps-surprise | Baxter International Inc. Quote

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Baxter this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00% for Baxter.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Baxter currently has a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks Worth a Look

Here are some medical product stocks worth considering, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Masimo MASI has an Earnings ESP of +8.04% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The company is set to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 26.

MASI’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 12.39%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MASI’s fourth-quarter EPS indicates a decline of 20.6% from the year-ago reported figure.

Merit Medical MMSI has an Earnings ESP of +2.09% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. The company is set to release second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Feb. 24.

MMSI’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 14.09%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MMSI’s fourth-quarter EPS implies an improvement of 3.2% from the year-ago reported figure.

DexCom DXCM has an Earnings ESP of +3.08% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12.

DXCM’s earnings surpassed estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other two, the average surprise being 0.17%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DXCM’s fourth-quarter EPS calls for a gain 44.4% from the year-ago reported figure.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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