Copa Holdings Earnings Fall Short of Estimates in Q4, Improve Y/Y

Copa Holdings, S.A. CPA reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $4.18, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.44 but improved 4.7% year over year. Revenues of $962.9 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $967.6 million but rallied 9.7% year over year due to an 12.9% increase in onboard passengers.

Passenger revenues (which contributed 94.8% to the top line) grew 9.4% year over year to $913.62 million. The upside was owing to 10.1% increase in revenue passenger miles, partially offset by a 0.6% decrease in passenger yield.

Cargo and mail revenues of $32.03 million grew 10.6% year over year, owing to higher cargo volumes resulting from the addition of a second freighter operation. Other operating revenues of $17.22 million improved 15.7% year over year, owing to an increase in ConnectMiles revenues from non-air partners.

CPA’s Other Financial Details

On a consolidated basis, Copa Holdings’ traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) grew 10.1% and capacity (measured in available seat miles) increased 9.9% from the year-ago quarter. Since traffic growth outpaced capacity expansion, the load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) increased 0.2 percentage points to 86.4% in the reported quarter.

Passenger revenue per available seat mile dipped 0.4% year over year to 10.7 cents. Revenue per available seat mile (RASM) fell 0.3% year over year to 11.3 cents. Cost per available seat mile grew 1.6% year over year. Excluding fuel, the metric rose 0.7% year over year. The average fuel price per gallon increased 5% year over year to $2.50.

Operating expenses increased 11.6% year over year to $753.3 million in the fourth quarter, owing to capacity growth, higher maintenance-related costs and an increase in the average price of jet fuel. Wages, salaries, benefits and other employee expenses rose 11.6% year over year. Sales and distribution costs increased 10% year over year. Passenger servicing costs grew 6.9% from the year-ago quarter. Airport facilities and handling charges grew 6.7% year over year. Fuel expenses rose 13.7% year over year.

Copa Holdings exited the fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $382.55 million compared with $248.82 million at the prior-quarter end.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, CPA took delivery of four Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft and ended the year with a total fleet of 125 aircraft. In January 2026, CPA took delivery of one additional Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft, bringing its total fleet to 126 aircraft.

CPA’s Outlook

For 2026, CPA’s management expects consolidated capacity to rise 11-13% year over year, and the operating margin is expected to be 22-24%. The fuel cost is expected to be $2.50 per gallon.

RASM is still expected to be 11.2 cents. The load factor for the current year is expected to be 87%. Non-fuel unit costs are anticipated to be 5.7 cents.

Copa Holdings expects to end 2026 with 133 aircraft.

Currently, CPA carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here

Q4 Performances of Other Transportation Companies

Delta Air Lines DAL reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 31 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.55 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.53. Earnings decreased 16.22% on a year-over-year basis due to high labor costs.

Revenues in the December-end quarter were $16 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.63 billion and increasing 2.9% on a year-over-year basis. Adjusted operating revenues (excluding third-party refinery sales) increased 1.2% year over year to $14.6 billion. Revenue growth was impacted by about 2 points due to the government shutdown, mainly in the domestic segment, consistent with the company's disclosure last month.

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. JBHT reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.90 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.81 and improved 24.2% year over year.

Total operating revenues of $3.09 billion lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.12 billion and were down 1.6% year over year. JBHT’s fourth-quarter revenue performance was hurt by 2% and 4% declines in revenue per load, excluding fuel surcharge revenues in Intermodal and Truckload, respectively, a 1% decrease in average trucks in Dedicated Contract Services, and 7% and 2% declines in load volume in Integrated Capacity Solutions and JBI, respectively.

The decrease in revenues, excluding fuel surcharge revenues, was partially offset by a 15% increase in volume in JBT, a 1% uptick in productivity, excluding fuel surcharge revenues, in DCS, and an increase in revenues per load in ICS. Total operating revenues, excluding fuel surcharge revenues, decreased 2% year over year.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. UAL reported solid fourth-quarter 2025 results wherein the company’s earnings and revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

UAL's fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (excluding 9 cents from non-recurring items) of $3.10 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.98 but declined 4.9% on a year-over-year basis. Operating revenues of $15.4 billion outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.1% and increased 4.8% year over year. Passenger revenues (which accounted for 90.4% of the top line) increased 4.9% year over year to $13.9 billion. UAL flights transported 45,679 passengers in the fourth quarter, up 3% year over year. Cargo revenues fell 6% year over year to $490 million. Revenues from other sources rose 9.1% year over year to $981 million.

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