Cost Pressure or Merchant Solutions Power Play? GPN Heads Into Q4

Global Payments Inc. GPN is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 18, 2026, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $3.18 per share on revenues of $2.32 billion. 

The fourth-quarter earnings estimate witnessed one upward revision over the past 60 days, against no downward movement. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year increase of 7.8%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies year-over-year growth of 1.4%.

For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Global Payments’ revenues is pegged at $9.31 billion, implying a rise of 1.8% year over year. The consensus mark for the current year EPS is pegged at $12.22, implying a jump of 5.8% on a year-over-year basis.

Global Payments’ earnings beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters and missed once, with an average surprise of 1.9%. This is depicted in the figure below.

Global Payments Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Global Payments Inc. price-eps-surprise | Global Payments Inc. Quote

Q4 Earnings Whispers for GPN

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, but that is not the case here.

GPN has an Earnings ESP of -1.26% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Likely to Shape GPN’s Q4 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for adjusted revenues from Merchant Solutions indicates a 0.3% increase from the year-ago period’s reported number of $1.76 billion. The consensus mark for the segment’s adjusted operating income indicates 3.4% growth from the year-ago level of $852 million.

The consensus estimate for Issuer Solutions’ adjusted revenues signals 4.4% increase from the year-ago figure of $542.1 million, whereas our model estimate predicts 4.7% growth. While the consensus estimate for adjusted operating income from the unit indicates a rise of 5.8% in the fourth quarter from $254.4 million a year ago, our model estimate implies a 6.2% increase. GPN closed the divestment of its Issuer Solutions business to FIS in January 2026.

The above-mentioned estimates indicate that GPN is positioned for year-over-year growth. However, profit growth from the businesses is likely to have been partially offset by increased costs under certain heads in the quarter under review. For the to-be-reported quarter, we anticipate the adjusted cost of service to rise 4% year over year. We expect adjusted total operating costs to be around $1.3 billion in the quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from Europe operations indicates a 56.3% year-over-year decrease in the fourth quarter. The consensus mark for revenues from the Americas operations indicates around 46% fall from a year ago. But the consensus estimate for revenuesfromAsia Pacific indicates 8.3% year-over-year growth.

How Did Other Stocks Perform?

Here are some companies in the broader payments space that have already reported earnings for this quarter: American Express Company AXP, Mastercard Incorporated MA and Visa Inc. V.

American Express reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.53, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.3%. Yet, the bottom line grew 16% year over year. Despite elevated customer engagement and operating cost levels, rising Card Member spending, revolving loan balances, and continued strong card fee growth aided American Express’ performance.

Mastercard reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $4.76 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 13.3%. The bottom line advanced 25% year over year. The results benefited from strong cross-border volumes, an increase in switched transactions and solid growth in value-added services revenues. However, the upside was partly offset by Mastercard’s elevated operating expenses.  

Visa reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 EPS of $3.17, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.14. The bottom line increased 15% year over year. The results benefited from higher payments and cross-border volumes. Resilient consumer spending remains a tailwind for Visa. However, the upside was partially offset by higher operating expenses and lower-than-expected processed transactions.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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