CPI Increased in Line With Expectations

As far as economic reports go, the good news just keeps on coming. Seemingly running on a separate track from investor fears about AI’s future role in the economy, today’s latest inflation read came in as well as anyone has the right to expect. Pre-market futures had been wallowing in negative territory ahead of this print, but are now pushing toward breakeven at this hour.

January CPI Favorable: Yearly Core Lowest in 5 Years

This morning’s delayed Consumer Price Index (CPI) report has checked all the boxes bullish investors like to see, starting with the headline +0.2% month over month — down from the +0.3% reported as month ago and estimated for January, and the lowest since July (there were no October or November 2025 reports due to the government shutdown). Subtracting volatile food and energy prices, this bumped up 10 basis points (bps) month over month to +0.3%.

Headline CPI year over year is also known as the Inflation Rate, and this dropped 30 bps month over month to +2.4% — the lowest we’ve seen since May of last year and 60 bps down from where we were last September. Shelter and food moderated to +0.2% while energy prices fell -1.5%. Core CPI year over year came in at +2.5% — down 10 bps month over month and the lightest print since March of 2021.

The metrics can again be traced to cheaper energy prices, especially gasoline, which dropped -7.5% last month. Used cars and trucks fell -2%. Perhaps most impressively, this core CPI Inflation Rate has melted down 80 bps from the +3.3% we saw one year ago. This looks to have been a flawless report, suitable for framing. For sure they don’t all come in like this.

Q4 Earnings Reports at a Glance: WEN, AAP, MRNA

A few notable Q4 earnings reports hit the tape this morning, in what has been the busiest week of earnings season so far, based on volume. Most marquee names not named NVIDIA (NVDA) have already reported, but we will continue the cavalcade through next week, as well.

Wendy’s (WEN) outperformed expectations on both top and bottom lines, with earnings of 16 cents per share bettering the Zacks consensus by 2 cents. Revenues of $542.97 million in the quarter improved over estimates by +0.28%, but are notably down year over year. The “Ozempic consumer” has spoken. Shares continue to tumble another 4% in early trading, to nearly 13-year lows.

Advance Auto Parts (AAP), on the other hand, posted a huge +110% positive earnings surprise in its Q4 report this morning: 86 cents per share versus estimates of 41 cents. Revenues came in ahead of expectations by +0.97% to $1.97 billion, and shares continue to climb in today’s pre-market on the news.

Biotech vax developer Moderna (MRNA) posted a better-than-expected loss per share of -$2.11 (versus -$2.60 in the Zacks consensus) on $678 million in quarterly revenues, +2.8% higher than anticipated — though still way down from the $966 million in the year-ago quarter. But shares are climbing another +1.7% at this hour, adding to its +36% gains year to date. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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