Should You Buy, Sell or Hold AU Stock Before Q4 Earnings Release?

AngloGold Ashanti PLC AU is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 20, before market open. AU is expected to deliver a year-over-year improvement in earnings in the quarter, aided by upbeat gold prices and higher production numbers.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AU’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has been unchanged over the past 60 days at $1.90 per share. The consensus mark indicates a 113.5% upsurge from the year-ago actual.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AngloGold Ashanti’s fourth-quarter total sales is pegged at $3.03 billion, indicating a 73% increase from the year-ago quarter’s actual.

AngloGold Ashanti’s Earnings Surprise History

The company has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 12%, on average.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for AU Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AngloGold Ashanti this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, but that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: AU has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently flaunts a Zacks Rank of 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped AngloGold Ashanti’s Q4 Performance

AngloGold Ashanti is likely to have delivered a strong performance in the fourth quarter of 2025, building on the robust momentum seen earlier in the year. AngloGold Ashanti reported a 17% year-over-year increase in gold production to 768,000 ounces in the third quarter, driven by the contributions from the recently acquired Sukari mine. The upside was also fueled by solid performances from key assets like Obuasi, Kibali, Geita and Cuiabá.

Obuasi delivered a strong year-over-year increase of 30%, driven by grade improvement and steady production ramp-up. Geita saw a 6% rise in production on higher grades. Production at Kibali grew 21% year over year, while Cuiabá’s production grew 6%. This momentum is expected to have continued in the fourth quarter and led to year-over-year higher production numbers.

Several factors have contributed to the upward trajectory of gold prices in 2025, including increased geopolitical tensions, a depreciating U.S. dollar, the potential for monetary policy easing, continuous purchasing by central banks and tariff conditions. Backed by these, the yellow metal has traded near-record high levels throughout October-December. This momentum in the prices of gold is likely to have improved AU’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

Along with AU, the increases in prices of gold are aiding its peers, Newmont Corporation NEM and Agnico Eagle Mines AEM.

AU’s Price Performance & Valuation

Shares of the company have skyrocketed 258.3% in the past year compared with the industry’s 147.6% surge. In comparison, the Zacks Basic Materials sector and the S&P 500 have returned 48.8% and 15.5%, respectively.

The company has also surpassed its peers Newmont and Agnico Eagle Mines’ rallies of 174.8% and 128.8%, respectively, so far this year.

AngloGold Ashanti’s stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 12.60X, which is lower than the industry average of 14.05X.

Meanwhile, Agnico Eagle Mines is trading higher at 17.50X. Newmont is trading at a higher 15.13X.

Investment Thesis on AngloGold Ashanti

AU is executing a clear strategy of organic and inorganic growth. The acquisition of Egyptian gold producer Centamin in November 2024 added the large-scale, long-life, world-class Tier 1 asset, Sukari, to its portfolio. It has the potential to produce 500,000 ounces annually. Sukari has already established itself as a top producer in the company’s portfolio and added 129,000 ounces and 135,000 ounces in the second and third quarters of 2025, respectively.

AngloGold Ashanti is intensifying its efforts to streamline operations and sharpen its focus on core assets, particularly in the United States.
AngloGold Ashanti closed its previously announced deal to acquire Augusta Gold Corp in October 2025, boosting its footprint in the Beatty District of Nevada.

Should You Buy AU Now?

AngloGold Ashanti is expected to post strong fourth-quarter 2025 results, supported by higher gold prices and increased production. Considering strong earnings growth projections and attractive valuation, AU is a solid stock to own. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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