Keurig Dr Pepper Q4 Earnings Approaching: Will It Surprise Investors?

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. KDP is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 24, before market open. The company is expected to register bottom and top-line growth when it reports the quarterly results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.36 billion, indicating a 7.2% rise from the year-ago period’s number.

The consensus estimate for KDP’s fourth-quarter earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at 59 cents per share. The consensus mark for earnings per share suggests a rise of 1.7% on a year-over-year basis.

In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a break-even earnings surprise. KDP has registered an earnings surprise of 3.1%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Key Factors to Note Ahead of KDP’s Q4 Results

Continued strength in brands and pricing actions have been bolstering the company’s performance. Its expansion initiatives and efforts to innovate its products are acting as tailwinds. Sturdy momentum in the Refreshment Beverages segment has been contributing to its overall results. Higher net price realization and volume/mix, supported by market share gains across key categories, including carbonated soft drinks, energy drinks and sports hydration, have been driving the segment’s performance.

Srength in premium and cold coffee innovations, coupled with strong brand performance and portfolio expansion through partnerships like Electrolit, GHOST and Bloom Pop, are likely to aid results. The company’s strategic transformation and resilient brand portfolio are expected to have acted as tailwinds.

Such factors, along with KDP’s consumer-focused innovation model, supported by comprehensive scorecards tracking awareness are expected to have driven continued market share gains in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Refreshment Beverages unit is pegged at $2.7 billion, up 12.5% year over year.

Although the aforesaid positives are likely to aid the quarterly results, Keurig Dr Pepper has been witnessing tariff and inflationary pressures, and elevated selling, general and administrative (SG&A)  costs, including increased marketing investments. In its last earnings call, management had highlighted the impacts of green coffee inflation and tariffs to build into the fourth quarter. The company has also been grappling with a sluggish Coffee segment for a while now. Lower volumes, unfavorable net price realization and declines in brewer shipments have been weighing on the segment’s performance.

Valuation Picture

From a valuation perspective, Keurig Dr Pepper stock is trading at a discount relative to historical and industry benchmarks. With a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 13.25x, which is below the five-year high of 23.33x and the Beverages - Soft Drinks industry’s average of 20.08x, the stock offers compelling value for investors seeking exposure to the sector.

The recent market movements show that KDP’s shares have risen 8.4% in the past three months compared with the industry's growth of 12.5%.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Keurig Dr Pepper this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Keurig Dr Pepper currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Monster Beverage Corporation MNST currently has an Earnings ESP of +17.16% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The consensus estimate for Monster Beverage’s quarterly revenues is pinned at $2.1 billion, which indicates nearly 13% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Monster Beverage’s upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at 49 cents, which implies a 29% increase year over year. MNST delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.5%, on average.

Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. FMX, or FEMSA, currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.92% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The consensus mark for the upcoming quarter’s revenues is pegged at $12.4 billion, which indicates a jump of 24.6% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FEMSA’s quarterly earnings per share of $1.53 implies growth of 232.6% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. FMX delivered a negative earnings surprise in the trailing three quarters. 

Celsius Holdings, Inc. CELH currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.46% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The consensus estimate for Celsius Holdings’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $638.2 million, which indicates a surge of 92.1% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Celsius Holdings’ upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at 19 cents, which calls for a 35.7% jump year over year. CELH delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 42.9%, on average.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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