Why Halliburton Looks Fully Priced After a 65% Run in 6 Months

Shares of oilfield service biggie Halliburton Company HAL have staged an eye-catching rally over the past six months, climbing nearly 65% and pushing the stock to a 52-week high of $35.55 in late January. The move has been driven by resilient international execution, disciplined cost control, and aggressive shareholder returns. Yet after such a sharp run, the question for investors is no longer what went right — but whether the upside from here still justifies a Buy. A closer look at relative performance, earnings momentum, and forward visibility suggests that risk-reward has become more balanced.

Price Performance Has Been Strong — and Well Ahead of Peers

Halliburton’s six-month rally has comfortably outpaced its largest oilfield services peers. Over the same period, SLB N.V. SLB is up about 55%, while Baker Hughes BKR has gained roughly 44%. That relative outperformance matters. Much of the positive operating news — international resilience, technology adoption and shareholder returns — is already reflected in Halliburton’s share price. With the stock now trading within a dollar of its recent high, incremental upside requires either accelerating earnings growth or a more favorable macro backdrop, neither of which looks imminent.

6-Month Price Performance Comparison

Halliburton’s Valuation: Is It as Cheap as It Looks?

At first glance, Halliburton appears attractively valued. The stock trades at about 15X forward earnings, well below the Zacks Oil and Gas Field Services industry average of more than 21X. On its own, that suggests room for multiple expansion. However, valuation needs to be considered alongside cycle positioning.

Unlike SLB and Baker Hughes — both of which have a more balanced geographic mix — Halliburton remains more exposed to North America, which accounts for close to 40% of its revenue base. With North American activity expected to decline again in 2026, that exposure limits how much valuation upside the market is likely to assign in the near term.

Earnings Estimates Are Improving, but Momentum Is Uneven

From a Zacks perspective, the setup is constructive but not compelling. The subindustry ranks in the top 31% of all industries, signaling a supportive broader backdrop. Analysts have responded by lifting estimates: over the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Halliburton’s 2026 EPS has risen about 4%, from $2.18 to $2.26, with 2027 estimates also up roughly 4% to $2.65.

That said, the upward revisions have been gradual rather than dramatic. Earnings expectations are trending higher, but not at a pace that clearly justifies a sharp revaluation of the stock after its strong rally. In comparison, SLB’s outlook is more closely linked to international growth, while Baker Hughes has broader exposure to LNG, subsea and energy technology markets beyond traditional oilfield services, giving it somewhat different growth drivers.

HAL’s Earnings History and Cash Returns Provide a Floor

Halliburton’s recent earnings history has been solid. The company beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters and met expectations in the other two, with an average surprise of about 11%. Fourth-quarter results showed resilience: revenues came in at $5.7 billion, adjusted EPS was 69 cents, and operating cash flow reached $1.2 billion.

Cash generation remains a clear strength. In 2025, Halliburton produced $2.9 billion in operating cash flow and $1.9 billion in free cash flow, returning roughly 85% of that free cash flow to its shareholders. Buybacks totaled $1 billion for the year, driving the share count to a decade low. These shareholder returns support earnings per share and help provide stability. They also suggest that the stock’s appeal is leaning more on steady cash payouts than on a strong acceleration in growth.

International Strength Offsets North America Risk

International operations continue to anchor the story. While full-year international revenues dipped 2% in 2025, that performance far outpaced the decline in global rig activity. Latin America, Brazil deepwater, Guyana, and artificial lift deployments are positioning Halliburton for relative outperformance if offshore and international spending stabilizes. Similar dynamics supported results at SLB and Baker Hughes in the fourth quarter, reinforcing the importance of long-cycle markets.

The challenge is North America. Management expects a high-single-digit revenue decline in the region in 2026, following a 6% drop in 2025. Margins are also set to compress in early 2026, with first-quarter guidance calling for sequential declines in both revenues and profitability. That near-term softness could cap enthusiasm even if the longer-term fundamentals remain intact.

Conclusion

Halliburton has executed well and rewarded investors handsomely over the past six months. Strong international performance, disciplined capital returns and improving earnings estimates provide a solid foundation. However, after a near-65% rally, much of that progress appears priced in. With North America still under pressure and margins facing near-term compression, the stock doesn’t seem to offer a clear Buy setup.

Taken together, Halliburton looks better positioned as a wait-and-watch name rather than an aggressive entry at the current levels. HAL currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), reflecting solid fundamentals but a more balanced risk-reward after its strong run.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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