Why Is Knight-Swift (KNX) Down 0.4% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX). Shares have lost about 0.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Knight-Swift due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Knight-Swift Miss on Earnings in Q4

Knight-Swift’s fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 31 cents per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 36 cents and declined 13.8% year over year. The reported figure came below the guidedrange of 34-40 cents.

Total revenues of $1.86 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.89 million and fell 0.4% year over year. Revenues, excluding truckload and LTL fuel surcharge, fell 0.6% year over year to $1.66 billion.

Total operating expenses (on a reported basis) grew 2.4% year over year to $1.83 billion.

KNX’s Q4 Segmental Results

Revenues (excluding fuel surcharge and inter-segment transactions) from Truckload totaled $1.08 billion, down 2.4% year over year, owing to a 3.3% decline in loaded miles. Adjusted operating income fell 10.7% year over year, owing to the reduction in miles and the related deleveraging impact on cost per mile. The fourth-quarter adjusted operating ratio was 70 basis points higher year over year.

The Less-Than-Truckload segment generated revenues (excluding fuel surcharges) worth $298.50 million in the fourth quarter, up 7% year over year. Revenues, excluding fuel surcharge, grew 7% year over year as shipments per day rose 2.1% and revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharge, increased 5%. Adjusted operating income fell 4.8% year over year, and the adjusted operating ratio of 95.1% grew 60 basis points year over year as the sequential slowdown in market demand in the fourth quarter weighed on operating cost per shipment.

Revenues from Logistics (excluding inter-segment transactions) amounted to $159.97 million, down 4.8% year over year, owing to a 1% decline in load count and a 4.1% decrease in revenue per load. Adjusted operating income decreased 36.6% year over year to $6.69 million. The adjusted operating ratio grew 210 bps to 95.8%.

Intermodal revenues (excluding inter-segment transactions) totaled $95.66 million, down 3.4% year over year, owing to an 6% decrease in load count, partially offset by the increase in revenue per load.

Within the All Other Segments, revenues grew 17.6%, and operating loss improved 37.3% year over year, owing to growth in the warehousing and leasing businesses.

Liquidity

Knight-Swift exited the fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $220.42 million compared with $192.67 million at the prior-quarter end. Long-term debt (excluding current maturities) was $1.02 billion compared with $1.05 billion at the end of the prior quarter.

KNX’s Guidance

KNX expects its first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of 28-32 cents.

Truckload segment revenues are expected to be down slightly, with operating margins relatively stable year over year in the first quarter. Tractor count is expected to be stable sequentially. LTL segment revenues, excluding fuel surcharge, are expected to be between 5% and 10% year over year in the first quarter, driven by shipment count growth and yield improvement.

Logistics segment revenues are expected to be down in the low single-digit percent on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter. Intermodal Segment load count is expected to be flat year over year in the first quarter. All Other Segments’ operating income, before including the $11.7 million quarterly intangible asset amortization, is anticipated to be between $22 million and $26 million in the first quarter.

Net interest expense is expected to decline modestly sequentially in the first quarter. Net cash capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be in the range of $625 million-$675 million. Adjusted tax rate is expected to be between 25% and 26% for the first quarter and for 2026.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -7.16% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Knight-Swift has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a C. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Knight-Swift has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Knight-Swift is part of the Zacks Transportation - Truck industry. Over the past month, JB Hunt (JBHT), a stock from the same industry, has gained 7.1%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended December 2025 more than a month ago.

JB Hunt reported revenues of $3.1 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -1.6%. EPS of $1.90 for the same period compares with $1.53 a year ago.

For the current quarter, JB Hunt is expected to post earnings of $1.46 per share, indicating a change of +24.8% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.3% over the last 30 days.

JB Hunt has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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