Allstate to Report Q1 Earnings: Can Higher Premiums Save the Day?

Property and casualty insurance provider The Allstate Corporation ALL is set to report its first-quarter 2025 results on April 30, 2025, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $2.27 per shareon revenues of $17.13 billion. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

The first-quarter earnings estimate declined 37.3% over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decline of 55.8%. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year increase of 11%.

For 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Allstate’s revenues is pegged at $69.45 billion, implying a rise of 7.95% year over year. However, the consensus mark for 2025 EPS is pegged at $16.75, implying an 8.6% year-over-year fall.

Allstate has a robust history of surpassing earnings estimates, beating the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 127.1%. This is depicted in the figure below.

The Allstate Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

The Allstate Corporation price-eps-surprise | The Allstate Corporation Quote

Q1 Earnings Whispers for Allstate

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.

ALL has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Shaping Allstate’s Q1 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for net premiums earned indicate 11.4% and 9.4% year-over-year growth, respectively. Net investment income is expected to have received an impetus from higher-yielding fixed-income securities. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net investment income indicates 7.5% year-over-year growth from $764 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for adjusted net income from the Protection Services business indicates 19.6% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for Homeowners’ policies in force indicates a 2.5% year-over-year increase.

The consensus mark for underwriting income from the Auto brand is pegged at $525.5 million compared with $351 million a year ago. The combined ratio in this line of business is pegged at 94.64%, improving from 96% in the year-ago quarter. This means a larger portion of premiums remained in the company’s kitty following claim payments.

The consensus estimate for underwriting loss from Commercial Lines is pegged at $29 million, down from $70 million a year ago. However, the consensus mark for adjusted net income from theAllstate Health and Benefits unit indicates a 26.8% year-over-year decrease. Ourmodel estimate for total costs and expenses indicates more than a 12% year-over-year increase due to higher operating costs and claims expenses, offsetting the positives.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Allstate, here are some companies from the broader Finance space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

Lemonade, Inc. LMND has an Earnings ESP of +3.40% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lemonade’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter has witnessed one upward revision over the past 60 days against no movement in the opposite direction. The consensus estimate for Lemonade’s revenues for the to be reported quarter indicates 20.9% increase from a year ago.

Trupanion, Inc. TRUP has an Earnings ESP of +220.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trupanion’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 68.8% year-over-year improvement. Trupanion beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missed once, with an average surprise of 37.5%.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. AJG has an Earnings ESP of +0.53% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Arthur J. Gallagher’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter signals a 2.3% increase from a year ago. Arthur J. Gallagher beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and met once, with an average surprise of 2.3%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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