Aflac Gears Up for Q1 Earnings: Will AFL Quack or Crack?

Insurance provider Aflac Incorporated AFL is set to report its first-quarter 2025 results on April 30, 2025, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $1.68 per shareon revenues of $4.38 billion. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

The first-quarter earnings estimate declined by a penny over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates year-over-year growth of 1.2%. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year decrease of 19.5%.

For 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aflac’s revenues is pegged at $17.62 billion, implying a fall of 1.23% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for 2025 EPS is pegged at $6.84, implying a 5.1% year-over-year decline.

Aflac beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 10.9%. This is depicted in the figure below.

Aflac Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise

Aflac Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Aflac Incorporated Quote

Q1 Earnings Whispers for Aflac

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.

AFL has an Earnings ESP of -0.65% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Shaping Aflac’s Q1 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter total net earned premiums indicates a 2.5% year-over-year decline. Also, the consensus mark for net investment income predicts a 6.3% decline from the year-ago period. These are likely to have resulted in revenue declines in the first quarter.

While the consensus mark signals a 2.7% increase in total adjusted revenues in Aflac U.S., due to higher premiums, the same for Aflac Japan predicts a 3% fall from the year-ago quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for pre-tax adjusted earnings from Aflac U.S. indicates a 2.3% year-over-year fall. Similarly, Aflac Japan is likely to have witnessed a 5.5% decline in pre-tax adjusted earnings.

The negatives are likely to have been partly offset by significantly improved pre-tax adjusted earnings figures from Corporate and other. Increasing efficiency and lower expenses are likely to have positioned the AFL’s bottom line for a year-over-year increase.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Aflac, here are some companies from the broader Finance space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

Lemonade, Inc. LMND has an Earnings ESP of +3.40% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lemonade’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter has witnessed one upward revision over the past 60 days against no movement in the opposite direction. The consensus estimate for Lemonade’s revenues for the to be reported quarter indicates 20.9% increase from a year ago.

Trupanion, Inc. TRUP has an Earnings ESP of +220.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trupanion’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 68.8% year-over-year improvement. Trupanion beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missed once, with an average surprise of 37.5%.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. AJG has an Earnings ESP of +0.53% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Arthur J. Gallagher’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter signals a 2.3% increase from a year ago. Arthur J. Gallagher beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and met once, with an average surprise of 2.3%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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