Assured Guaranty Ltd. Reports Results for Third Quarter 2026

By Business Wire | November 05, 2026, 3:05 PM

GAAP Highlights:
- Net income attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. was $78 million, or $1.75 per share,⁽¹⁾for third quarter 2026.
- Shareholders’ equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. per share was $122.91 as of September 30, 2026.
- Gross written premiums (GWP) were $127 million for third quarter 2026.
Non-GAAP Highlights:
- Adjusted operating income⁽²⁾ was $86 million, or $1.94 per share, for third quarter 2026.
- Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity per share⁽²⁾ and adjusted book value (ABV)per share⁽²⁾ were $131.99 and $192.60, respectively, as of September 30, 2026.
- Present value of new business production (PVP)⁽²⁾ was $128 million for third quarter 2026.
Return of Capital to Shareholders:
- Third quarter 2026 capital returned to shareholders was $27 million including share repurchases of $10 million and dividends of $17 million.

HAMILTON, Bermuda--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO) (AGL and, together with its subsidiaries, Assured Guaranty or the Company) announced today its financial results for the three-month period ended September 30, 2026 (third quarter 2026).

Dominic Frederico, President and CEO, said: “Our strong new business production in the first nine months of 2026 demonstrated the success of our current growth strategy across our financial guaranty franchise, generating $278 million of GWP and $280 million of PVP. All three markets, U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, and global structured finance, achieved significant year-over-year increases in both measures, with global structured finance doubling its GWP and PVP.

“Additionally, Assured Guaranty’s financial guaranty loss expense during the third quarter of 2026 was just $1 million and our net economic loss development was a benefit of $27 million.

“While our September 30^th shareholders’ equity per share was impacted by unrealized losses in the investment portfolio due largely to the rising interest rate environment, we achieved the highest per-share levels of adjusted operating shareholders’ equity and adjusted book value in our history.”

(1)	All per share information for net income and adjusted operating income is based on diluted shares.
(2)	Please see “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release.



Summary Financial Results
(in millions, except per share amounts)

	Quarter Ended
	September 30,
		2026			2025

GAAP ⁽¹⁾
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL	$	78		$	105
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL per diluted share	$	1.75		$	2.18
Weighted average diluted shares		44.3			48.0
Non-GAAP ⁽²⁾
Adjusted operating income (loss)	$	86		$	124
Adjusted operating income per diluted share	$	1.94		$	2.57
Weighted average diluted shares		44.3			48.0
Components of total adjusted operating income (loss)
Financial Guaranty segment	$	115		$	145
Annuity Reinsurance segment		1			—
Asset Management segment		2			3
Corporate division		(31	)		(24	)
Other		(1	)		—
Adjusted operating income (loss)	$	86		$	124


	As of
	September 30, 2026				December 31, 2025
	Amount		Per Share		Amount		Per Share

Shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL	$	5,403	$	122.91	$	5,663	$	125.32
Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity ⁽²⁾		5,802		131.99		5,729		126.78
ABV ⁽²⁾		8,466		192.60		8,424		186.43

Common Shares Outstanding		44.0				45.2

________________________________________
(1)	Generally accepted accounting principles in the United States of America.
(2)	Please see “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release.

On a per share basis, shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL decreased to $122.91 as of September 30, 2026 from $125.32 as of December 31, 2025, primarily due to unrealized losses on the investment portfolio due largely to the rising interest rate environment. On a per share basis, ABV increased to $192.60 as of September 30, 2026 from $186.43 as of December 31, 2025, primarily due to adjusted operating income, new business production, share repurchases, and the accretive effect of the acquisition of Assured Life Reinsurance Ltd. (Assured Life Re), partially offset by dividends.

Financial Guaranty Segment

The Financial Guaranty segment primarily consists of (i) the Company’s financial guaranty insurance subsidiaries that provide credit protection products to the United States (U.S.) and non-U.S. public finance (including infrastructure) and structured finance markets, excluding the effect of variable interest entity (VIE) consolidations, and (ii) Assured Guaranty Inc.’s investment subsidiary, AG Asset Strategies LLC.

Financial Guaranty Segment New Business Production

Financial Guaranty Segment New Business Production (in millions)

	Quarter Ended September 30,
	2026						2025
	GWP		PVP ⁽¹⁾		Gross Par Written ⁽²⁾		GWP			PVP ⁽¹⁾		Gross Par Written ⁽²⁾

Public finance - U.S.	$	87	$	93	$	5,566	$	77		$	78	$	7,851
Public finance - non-U.S.		21		20		284		(13	)		5		243
Structured finance - U.S.		13		9		646		2			—		42
Structured finance - non-U.S.		6		6		1,045		9			8		1,005
Total	$	127	$	128	$	7,541	$	75		$	91	$	9,141

________________________________________
(1)	PVP, a non-GAAP financial measure, measures the value of the Financial Guaranty segment’s new business production for all contracts regardless of form or GAAP accounting model. See “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release. PVP is based on “close date,” when the transaction settles. PVP was discounted at 4.5% and 5.0% in third quarter 2026 and in the three-month period ended September 30, 2025 (third quarter 2025), respectively.
(2)	Gross Par Written is based on “close date,” when the transaction settles.

U.S. public finance GWP and PVP include transactions closed in both the primary and secondary markets. U.S. public finance GWP and PVP in third quarter 2026 increased compared with third quarter 2025 by $10 million and $15 million, respectively. Significant contributors to U.S. public finance results this quarter included infrastructure finance, transportation revenue and municipal utility revenue transactions.

Non-U.S. public finance GWP and PVP in third quarter 2026 increased compared with third quarter 2025, by $34 million and $15 million, respectively, and were primarily attributable to an infrastructure finance transaction in France and a regulated energy transaction in Spain. GWP for non-U.S. public finance in third quarter 2025 was negative due to the early repayment of several U.K. sub-sovereign credits, which had no impact on third quarter 2025 PVP.

Global (U.S. and non-U.S.) structured finance GWP and PVP in third quarter 2026 increased compared with third quarter 2025, and results were primarily attributable to fund finance transactions, a commercial real estate balloon note guaranty transaction and a non-U.S. consumer receivables auto lending facility transaction.

Financial Guaranty Segment Adjusted Operating Income

Financial Guaranty segment adjusted operating income decreased to $115 million in third quarter 2026 from $145 million in third quarter 2025 primarily due to a $1 million loss expense in third quarter 2026 compared with a $31 million benefit in third quarter 2025, fair value losses on trading securities of $2 million in third quarter 2026 compared with $8 million of gains in third quarter 2025, and the decrease of $7 million in equity in earnings of investees in third quarter 2026 compared with third quarter 2025, partially offset by the increase of $16 million in net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues in third quarter 2026.


Financial Guaranty Segment Results (in millions)

	Quarter Ended
	September 30,
		2026			2025
Segment revenues
Net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues	$	115		$	99
Net investment income		93			94
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement		—			(1	)
Fair value gains (losses) on trading securities		(2	)		8
Other income (loss)		1			6
Total segment revenues		207			206

Segment expenses
Loss expense (benefit)		1			(31	)
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs (DAC)		3			6
Employee compensation and benefit expenses		43			44
Other operating expenses		31			32
Total segment expenses		78			51
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees		9			16
Segment adjusted operating income (loss) before income taxes		138			171
Less: Provision (benefit) for income taxes		23			26
Segment adjusted operating income (loss)	$	115		$	145

The components of the Financial Guaranty segment’s premiums, losses and income from the investment portfolio are presented below.

Financial Guaranty Segment Net Earned Premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues

Financial Guaranty Segment Net Earned Premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues (in millions)

	Quarter Ended
	September 30,
	2026		2025
Scheduled net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues	$	97	$	93
Accelerations and modifications		18		6
Total	$	115	$	99

Scheduled net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues increased to $97 million in third quarter 2026 from $93 million in third quarter 2025 primarily due to continued growth in shorter duration strategies like fund finance, as well as higher scheduled public finance net earned premiums.

Financial Guaranty Segment Loss Expense (Benefit) and the Roll Forward of Expected Losses

Loss expense is a function of net economic loss development (benefit) and deferred premium revenue. The difference between loss expense and economic development in a given period represents the amount of deferred premium revenue absorbing expected losses to be paid.

Financial Guaranty Segment Loss Expense (Benefit) (in millions)

	Quarter Ended
	September 30,
		2026			2025
Public finance	$	1		$	(7	)
U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS)		(1	)		(26	)
Other structured finance		1			2
Total	$	1		$	(31	)

Loss expense attributable to U.S. RMBS was a benefit of $1 million in third quarter 2026 compared with a benefit of $26 million in third quarter 2025 primarily due to updates of recoveries for charged-off second lien loans in third quarter 2025.

The table below presents the roll forward of net expected losses for third quarter 2026.

Roll Forward of Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) ⁽¹⁾(in millions)

	Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of June 30, 2026			Net Economic Loss Development (Benefit)			Net (Paid) Recovered Losses			Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of September 30, 2026

Public finance	$	174		$	(23	)	$	(60	)	$	91
U.S. RMBS		(40	)		(4	)		8			(36	)
Other structured finance		58			—			—			58
Total	$	192		$	(27	)	$	(52	)	$	113

________________________________________

(1)

Net economic loss development (benefit) represents the change in net expected loss to be paid (recovered) attributable to the effects of changes in the economic performance of insured transactions, changes in assumptions based on observed market trends, changes in discount rates, accretion of discount and the economic effects of loss mitigation efforts, each net of reinsurance. Net economic loss development (benefit) is the principal measure that the Company uses to evaluate the loss experience in its insured portfolio. Expected loss to be paid (recovered) includes all transactions insured by the Company, regardless of the accounting model prescribed under GAAP and without consideration of deferred premium revenue.

Net economic benefit in third quarter 2026 was primarily attributable to additional liquidity available to Brightline Trains Florida LLC (Brightline), as a result of its recent proposed restructuring. The Company insures 51% of Brightline’s senior revenue bonds, which are secured by a senior lien on Brightline’s assets.

Financial Guaranty Segment Income from the Investment Portfolio

Financial Guaranty Segment Income from the Investment Portfolio (in millions)

	Quarter Ended
	September 30,
		2026		2025
Net investment income	$	93		$	94
Fair value gains (losses) on trading securities		(2	)		8
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees ⁽¹⁾		9			16
Total	$	100		$	118

________________________________________
(1)	Equity in earnings (losses) of investees primarily relates to funds managed by Sound Point Capital Management, LP and certain of its investment management subsidiaries (Sound Point) and Assured Healthcare Partners, LLC. Investments in funds are reported on a one-quarter lag.

Net investment income represents interest income on available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities and short-term investments, which had an overall pre-tax book yield of 5.00% as of September 30, 2026 and 4.80% as of September 30, 2025.

Equity in earnings (losses) of investees was a gain of $9 million in third quarter 2026, compared with a gain of $16 million in third quarter 2025. Equity in earnings (losses) of investees may be more volatile than net investment income on available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities and short-term investments, due to mark-to-market changes associated with certain alternative investments.

As of September 30, 2026, the Company had $922 million in alternative investments across a variety of asset classes: $729 million in the Financial Guaranty segment consisting primarily of collateralized loan obligation (CLO) subordinated notes in the available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities portfolio and investments in funds focused on asset classes such as private healthcare investing, asset-based/specialty finance, commercial real estate finance and CLOs. The remaining alternative investments are in the Corporate division. The inception-to-date annualized internal rate of return for all alternative investments was 11.5% as of September 30, 2026.

Annuity Reinsurance Segment

On January 21, 2026, the Company expanded its insurance operations to include annuity reinsurance through the acquisition of Warwick Re Limited, which the Company renamed Assured Life Re. The Annuity Reinsurance segment consists of the results of Assured Life Re and the other subsidiaries acquired as part of that transaction.

Annuity Reinsurance Segment Results (in millions)

	Quarter Ended
	September 30, 2026
Segment revenues
Net investment income ⁽¹⁾	$	10
Fair value gains (losses) on derivatives ⁽²⁾		5
Other income (loss)		1
Total segment revenues		16

Segment expenses
Benefit expense for annuity reinsurance contracts ⁽³⁾		10
Employee compensation and benefit expenses		3
Other operating expenses		2
Total segment expenses		15
Segment adjusted operating income (loss) before income taxes		1
Less: Provision (benefit) for income taxes		—
Segment adjusted operating income (loss)	$	1

________________________________________
(1)	Represents primarily net investment income on assets supporting the U.K. bulk purchase annuities (pension risk transfers, PRT) contract.
(2)	Represents the change in the fair value of the embedded derivative in funds withheld, excluding realized and unrealized gains (losses) on the underlying investments of the funds withheld account supporting Assured Life Re’s U.S. multi-year guaranteed annuities (MYGA) contract.
(3)	Benefit expense for annuity reinsurance contracts includes $6 million related to PRT benefit expense and $4 million related to MYGA interest expense.

Assured Life Re reinsures a block of PRT business, with reserves of $459 million, supported by a $569 million asset portfolio that consists primarily of U.S. and U.K. corporate and government bonds, including a portfolio of inflation-linked bonds. The asset portfolio also includes derivatives that economically hedge the currency, inflation and interest rate mismatches between the PRT liabilities, which are long-dated inflation-linked obligations denominated in pound sterling, and the investment portfolio, which includes certain U.S. dollar denominated and non-inflation linked securities. See “Reconciliation to GAAP.”

Assured Life Re also reinsures a block of MYGA business with a policyholder account value of $248 million. The MYGA policyholder account balances for annuity reinsurance contracts are supported by assets in a funds withheld arrangement with the cedant and primarily consist of mortgage and other asset-backed securities for which the Company reports a funds withheld receivable of $267 million.

Asset Management Segment

Asset management adjusted operating income was $2 million in third quarter 2026 and $3 million in third quarter 2025. It includes the Company’s ownership interest in Sound Point and the related amortization of intangible assets.

Corporate Division

Corporate Division Results (in millions)

	Quarter Ended
	September 30,
		2026			2025
Revenues	$	2		$	3
Expenses
Interest expense		24			24
Employee compensation and benefit expenses		5			6
Other operating expenses		6			8
Total expenses		35			38
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees		1			9
Adjusted operating income (loss) before income taxes		(32	)		(26	)
Less: Provision (benefit) for income taxes		(1	)		(2	)
Adjusted operating income (loss)	$	(31	)	$	(24	)

The Corporate division primarily consists of interest expense on the debt of Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. and Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. as well as expenses attributed to the holding companies’ activities. The Corporate division also includes equity in earnings (losses) of investees related to certain alternative investments.

Reconciliation to GAAP

The following table presents a reconciliation of net income (loss) attributable to AGL to adjusted operating income (loss).

Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Operating Income (Loss) (in millions, except per share amounts)

	Quarter Ended
	September 30,
	2026						2025
	Total			Per Diluted Share			Total			Per Diluted Share
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL	$	78		$	1.75		$	105		$	2.18
Less pre-tax adjustments:
Realized gains (losses) on investments		(11	)		(0.26	)		(10	)		(0.22	)
Non-credit impairment-related fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives		—			(0.01	)		1			0.02
Fair value gains (losses) of freestanding derivatives in the Annuity Reinsurance segment		6			0.15			—			—
Realized and unrealized fair value gains (losses) of the embedded derivative in funds withheld		(3	)		(0.08	)		—			—
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities (CCS)		(2	)		(0.04	)		8			0.17
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of certain assets and liabilities		(1	)		(0.02	)		(22	)		(0.44	)
Total pre-tax adjustments		(11	)		(0.26	)		(23	)		(0.47	)
Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments		3			0.07			4			0.08
Adjusted operating income (loss)	$	86		$	1.94		$	124		$	2.57

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE and CIV consolidation included in adjusted operating income ⁽¹⁾	$	(1	)	$	(0.01	)	$	—		$	—

________________________________________
(1)	The effect of consolidating financial guaranty (FG) VIEs and consolidated investment vehicles (CIVs).

Realized losses on investments were primarily due to credit losses on CLO subordinated notes and corporate securities in third quarter 2026 and CLO subordinated notes in third quarter 2025.

Except for credit impairment, the fair value adjustments on credit derivatives in the insured portfolio are non-economic adjustments that reverse to zero over the remaining term of that portfolio.

The Company purchases swaps and forwards to economically hedge foreign currency, interest rate and inflation risks in the annuity reinsurance business. These derivatives are freestanding and not in designated hedging relationships in accordance with GAAP.

The funds withheld arrangement includes the Company’s right to receive the total return on the assets supporting the funds withheld coinsurance agreement, which represents an embedded derivative. The fair value of this embedded derivative is included in funds withheld on the condensed consolidated balance sheets and the change in its fair value is based on the fair value of the underlying assets. The changes in fair value of the embedded derivative in funds withheld related to realized and unrealized gains and losses of the underlying investment portfolio are not included in adjusted operating income.

Fair value of CCS is heavily affected by, and in part fluctuates with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and is not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

Foreign exchange gains (losses) primarily relate to remeasurement of certain assets and liabilities such as premiums receivables and insurance liabilities that are long term in nature and are mainly due to changes in exchange rates relative to the U.S. dollar of the pound sterling and, to a lesser extent, the euro.

Common Share Repurchases

Since the launch of its share repurchase program in 2013, the Company has returned $6 billion of capital to shareholders, having repurchased 81% of its common shares outstanding at the beginning of the program.

Summary of Share Repurchases (in millions, except per share amounts)

	Amount ⁽¹⁾		Number of Shares	Average Price Per Share

2026 (January 1 - March 31)	$	75	0.882	$	85.58
2026 (April 1 - June 30)		45	0.554		80.68
2026 (July 1 - September 30)		10	0.123		83.78
2026 (October 1 - November 4)	—		—	—
Total 2026	$	130	1.559	83.70

________________________________________
(1)	Excludes commissions.

As of November 4, 2026, the Company was authorized to repurchase an additional $121 million of its common shares.

As part of its overall capital management strategy, the Company evaluates on a quarterly basis planned uses of available capital, which may include growth opportunities in its financial guaranty insurance and annuity reinsurance businesses, maintaining a capital cushion to support its existing business and share repurchases.

The timing, form and amount of any future share repurchases will be determined at the Company’s discretion and will depend on various factors, including alternative uses for capital, the Company’s regulatory capital position, rating agency capital considerations, availability of cash at the parent company, market conditions and legal and regulatory requirements. Any such share repurchases may be made from time to time through open-market purchases or privately negotiated transactions, and there can be no assurance of the amount of share repurchases that will occur in the future.

Financial Statements



Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited) (in millions)

	Quarter Ended
	September 30,
		2026			2025
Revenues
Net earned premiums	$	112		$	94
Net investment income		103			94
Net realized investment gains (losses)		(11	)		(10	)
Fair value gains (losses) on derivatives		10			5
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS		(2	)		8
Gains (losses) on FG VIEs		3			3
Fair value gains (losses) on CIVs		—			17
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement		(1	)		(23	)
Fair value gains (losses) on trading securities		(2	)		8
Asset management revenues		—			6
Other income (loss)		2			5
Total revenues		214			207
Expenses
Loss and LAE (benefit)		2			(30	)
Benefit expense for annuity reinsurance contracts		10			—
Interest expense		22			22
Amortization of DAC		3			6
Employee compensation and benefit expenses		51			50
Asset management expenses		—			4
Other operating expenses		39			40
Total expenses		127			92
Income (loss) before income taxes and equity in earnings (losses) of investees		87			115
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees		12			20
Income (loss) before income taxes		99			135
Less: Provision (benefit) for income taxes		19			21
Net income (loss)		80			114
Less: Noncontrolling interest		2			9
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL	$	78		$	105

Contacts

Robert Tucker
Senior Managing Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications
212-339-0861
rtucker@agltd.com

Ashweeta Durani
Director, Media Relations
212-408-6042
adurani@agltd.com

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Mentioned In This Article

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