Unveiling Shopify (SHOP) Q1 Outlook: Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics

By Zacks Equity Research | May 05, 2025, 9:15 AM

The upcoming report from Shopify (SHOP) is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $0.26 per share, indicating an increase of 30% compared to the year-ago period. Analysts forecast revenues of $2.33 billion, representing an increase of 25.2% year over year.

The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has undergone a downward revision of 2% in the past 30 days, bringing it to its present level. This represents how the covering analysts, as a whole, have reassessed their initial estimates during this timeframe.

Before a company announces its earnings, it is essential to take into account any changes made to earnings estimates. This is a valuable factor in predicting the potential reactions of investors toward the stock. Empirical research has consistently shown a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and the short-term price performance of a stock.

While investors usually depend on consensus earnings and revenue estimates to assess the business performance for the quarter, delving into analysts' forecasts for certain key metrics often provides a more comprehensive understanding.

With that in mind, let's delve into the average projections of some Shopify metrics that are commonly tracked and projected by analysts on Wall Street.

Analysts forecast 'Revenues- Merchant solutions' to reach $1.71 billion. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +26.7%.

It is projected by analysts that the 'Revenues- Subscription solutions' will reach $621.37 million. The estimate indicates a change of +21.6% from the prior-year quarter.

The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV)' of $74.66 billion. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported $60.86 billion in the same quarter of the previous year.

Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Gross Payments Volume (GPV)' should arrive at $46.44 billion. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of $36.24 billion.

The consensus estimate for 'Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR)' stands at $179.99 million. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of $151 million.

According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Shopify Plus contributed' should come in at $59.04 million. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported $48 million in the same quarter of the previous year.

Analysts expect 'Gross Profit- Merchant solutions' to come in at $661.73 million. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of $541 million.

The consensus among analysts is that 'Gross Profit- Subscription solutions' will reach $542.99 million. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of $416 million.

View all Key Company Metrics for Shopify here>>>

Shopify shares have witnessed a change of +29.1% in the past month, in contrast to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% move. With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), SHOP is expected closely follow the overall market performance in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report


 
Shopify Inc. (SHOP): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research

Mentioned In This Article

Latest News