Can Shopify's AI Commerce Strategy Drive the Next Leg of Growth?

Shopify SHOP is positioning AI not as a product enhancement but as a surface where commerce occurs and is systematically building the infrastructure to sit at the center of it. Through deliberate investments in Catalog, Sidekick, the Universal Commerce Protocol and Agentic Storefront integrations, SHOP is attempting to embed itself as the foundational layer of AI-driven commerce before the market fully takes shape.

Catalog structures billions of products across Shopify's merchant base so that AI agents can surface relevant items accurately and in real time. Sidekick extends this intelligence to the merchant side, drawing on platform-wide data to surface actionable recommendations. Together, these tools suggest Shopify is building leverage on both ends of the commerce equation, which could structurally widen its monetizable surface area over time. The Universal Commerce Protocol, co-developed alongside Google, standardizes how AI agents execute transactions while keeping Shopify's checkout and payments infrastructure intact on the back end. 

Agentic Storefront integrations then distribute this capability across Google AI Mode, ChatGPT, Gemini and Microsoft Copilot without disrupting existing monetization mechanics. This architecture is significant because it allows Shopify to participate in AI-driven commerce growth without ceding control of the transaction layer. Early traction is evident as orders from AI-driven search grew 15x over 2025 from a small base and fourth-quarter 2025 GMV increased 31% year over year to $123.8 billion.

However, converting infrastructure positioning into financial outperformance involves meaningful execution complexity. Merchant adoption must scale, the protocol must demonstrate consistency across platforms and AI-driven order volumes remain early-stage. The Zacks Consensus Estimate pegs first-quarter 2026 merchant solutions revenues at $2.2 billion, up 26.5% year over year. Whether these strategic AI pillars can collectively open a durable new growth lane is arguably the most important question shaping Shopify's next leg of growth.

Tough Competition Hurts SHOP’s Prospects

Shopify faces stiff competition in the e-commerce marketplace from the likes of Wix.com WIX and Amazon AMZN.

Wix.com is gaining traction through continued momentum in its core business and strategic investments in AI offerings, commerce solutions and its premium WIX Studio platform. Wix.com's growing focus on agentic and AI-powered tools for smaller merchants directly overlaps with a segment Shopify actively targets, making Wix.com an increasingly relevant competitive consideration.

Amazon dominates the United States e-commerce market through its vast logistics network, deep AI integration and the expanding reach of its Buy with Prime service. Amazon's ability to bundle payments, fulfillment and personalization within a single ecosystem makes it a formidable competitor globally. As Amazon continues deepening its AI capabilities across commerce and cloud, its competitive positioning only strengthens.

SHOP’s Share Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shopify shares have declined 10.2% in the past six months, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s return of 10.7% and the Zacks Internet Services industry’s appreciation of 43.5%.

SHOP Stock’s Performance

Shopify stock is overvalued, with a forward 12-month price/sales of 10.96X compared with the broader sector’s 6.47X. SHOP has a Value Score of F.

SHOP Valuation

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is pegged at $1.74 per share, down by 2 cents over the past 30 days and suggests 48.72% year over year growth.

Shopify Inc. Price and Consensus

Shopify Inc. price-consensus-chart | Shopify Inc. Quote

Shopify currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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