5 Stocks That Crushed Earnings and Guidance Forecasts

Headwinds exist in 2025, and the second half could be rough for many companies. However, leaders like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) crushed their earnings and guidance forecasts for Q1, suggesting the market correction in H1 is more than an overreaction. 

The takeaway for investors today is that the companies on this list are still growing, in many cases accelerating, setting records, and driving value for investors not reflected in their share prices. Headwinds will continue to impact their share prices in 2025, but higher prices are likely, and the long-term outlook is robust.

Headwinds will eventually dissipate, market fears will subside, and uptrends will be sustained because of growth, profits, cash flow, and capital returns. 

Microsoft Catches Market's Attention With Results and Guidance 

Microsoft’s stock price surged 10% following its Q1 release and guidance update, and it is holding the gains for good reason. The company’s results reveal strengths in all segments, with growth centered in cloud and AI infrastructure and applications.

Critical details include record-setting quarterly results, record data center results, and improved leverage. Adjusted earnings grew by more than 20%, 800 basis points more than the top, and are expected to remain strong in FQ4 and the following fiscal year. 

Another critical factor for this tech stock is its cash flow and capital return.

The robust cash flow sustains a reliable capital return that includes share repurchases and dividends. Neither is large; the buybacks reduced the count by 0.15% in FQ3 and dividends annualize to roughly 0.75%, but they are sustainable.

The dividend is only 25% of the earnings outlook, expected to grow annually at a low-double-digit pace.

Meta Platforms Leverages AI for its Investors

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is among the top-performing companies in Q1. It grew revenue by a solid 16% on top of last year’s gains and widening its margin. The margin gain is impressive, increasing the operating profit at more than double the top-line pace.

Cash flow is another significant factor, accounting for more than 50% of revenue and free cash flow running at nearly 25%, sustaining the balance sheet health and capital return outlook. 

Meta Platforms is an emerging dividend-growth stock with the ability to increase its payout indefinitely. The payout ratio in 2025 is below 10% and is likely to remain there for the foreseeable future.

The upshot is that dividends are compounded by share buybacks, which reduced the count by 1.3% YOY for the quarter. 

Analysts Catalyze Upswing in Netflix Price

As with Microsoft analysts, who are lifting price targets and leading the market to fresh all-time highs, Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) analysts are optimistic following the Q1 results. The revision trend is overwhelmingly bullish, lifting MarketBeat’s reported consensus by 5% within a week of the release, leading to the high-end range.

Although the consensus lags, the significant increases put this market in the range of $1200 to $1500 by year-end, a nearly 60% increase at the high end. 

Not only is Netflix outperforming its top and bottom line forecasts, but it has rapidly matured into a blue-chip company. Its balance sheet is a fortress and now carries investment-quality debt ratings that allow it to borrow for less, and mean investors, not creditors, are sitting pretty.

Highlights from the FQ1 release include top and bottom line outperformance driven by ads and subscriptions, a double-digit increase in free cash flow, debt reduction, and share buybacks.

Share buybacks reduced the count by 1% YOY and are expected to continue this year. 

Advanced Micro Devices Relieves Market: Rebound Faces Headwinds 

Advanced Micro Devices relieved the market with its Q1 report, revealing strength in data center spending, good for the entire AI industry, and strength in core business.

The data center segment accelerated to 57% YOY growth with strength in demand for Instinct GPUs and EPYC CPUs. Guidance was also good despite the impact of China-related restrictions, outpacing consensus, and likely cautious given the company’s history. 

The bad news is that AMD analysts are lowering their price targets following the release, which presents a headwind for the market. The silver lining is that the consensus of fresh targets puts this market above the $150 day EMA and at levels likely to trigger broad-based buying if achieved.

The risk is that tariffs and restrictions on exports to China will increase macroeconomic headwinds and impair second-half results. 

Roblox Cash Flow Rises as Profitability Targets Draw Closer 

Roblox (NYSE: RBLX) has not yet returned capital to shareholders but is on track to do so.

The Q1 results highlight significant revenue, leverage, and operational quality improvements, with an 86% improvement in cash flow and a 123% improvement in free cash flow.

Other highlights include the 26% increase in daily active users, 30% increase in monthly unique players, and 30% increase in engagement, all driving a solid 31% increase in bookings.

The 31% booking increase is noteworthy because it will accelerate revenue growth in 2025. 

Like Netflix, Roblox's consensus price target lags the price action in early May, but revisions are robust and lead to the high-end range. In the case of Roblox, that is a gain of 20% and a fresh three-year high when reached.

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