Flowers Foods Set to Release Q1 Earnings: Key Insights for Investors

Flowers Foods, Inc. FLO is likely to register top-line growth when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on May 16. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.6 billion, which indicates an increase of 1.7% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The consensus mark for earnings has moved up a penny in the past seven days to 38 cents per share, which is in line with the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. FLO delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.7%, on average. (Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Flowers Foods, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Flowers Foods, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Flowers Foods, Inc. Quote

FLO’s Q1 Earnings: Key Factors to Watch

Flowers Foods’ focus on core priorities has been aiding its performance. These include developing its team, concentrating on brands, prioritizing margins and looking out for prudent mergers and acquisitions. To this end, management has been shifting its focus toward becoming a more brand-focused company. 

Flowers Foods has been adhering to objectives, which include executing portfolio strategy by exiting the low-margin business and replacing it with a margin-accretive new business, enhancing cost structure, investing in brands to drive volume and share gains, enhancing the product mix, utilizing technology to improve data visibility, making better strategic decisions and investing in team to enhance overall execution. These efforts are likely to have contributed to the company’s performance in the quarter under review.

On its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call, management highlighted strong tracked channel volume gains for core bread brands, Dave’s Killer Bread, Wonder and Canyon. Nature’s Own’s premium Perfectly Crafted line also posted unit growth in the fourth quarter, driven by sustained demand for differentiated offerings. Management noted this growth reflects successful innovation and solid market execution. The continued implementation of its portfolio strategy is likely to have aided the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

However, the company’s fiscal first-quarter results are likely to reflect the effects of a challenging consumer environment marked by shifts in spending behavior and higher costs stemming from elevated promotional activity. While the broader food industry has benefited from increased at-home consumption, Flowers Foods continues to face headwinds in key categories, including cake. Persistent category weakness is likely to have weighed on the upcoming quarter's performance. Our model indicates a 1.1% dip in overall volumes in the fiscal first quarter.

Earnings Whispers for FLO Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Flowers Foods this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. 

Flowers Foods currently has an Earnings ESP of -1.06% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Some Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

The Simply Good Foods Company SMPL currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.20% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 50 cents, which is in line with the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus estimate for Simply Good Foods’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $379.8 million, which indicates an increase of 13.5% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. SMPL delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.2%, on average.

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. BJ currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.97% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2025 EPS is pegged at 91 cents, which implies a 7.1% increase year over year.

The consensus mark for BJ's Wholesale Club’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.2 billion, which indicates growth of 5.3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. BJ delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 12%, on average.

McCormick & Company, Incorporated MKC currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.65% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter fiscal 2025 EPS is pegged at 68 cents, which implies a 1.5% decrease year over year.

The consensus mark for McCormick’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.7 billion, which indicates an increase of 1.3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. MKC delivered a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of roughly 9.2%, on average.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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