Is Raymond James' Outperform Rating on SMCI Stock a Buy Today?

Super Micro Computer, Inc. SMCI stock encountered controversies over the past year, including accounting violations and a non-compliance letter from Nasdaq. Although Supermicro avoided de-listing, its reputation declined, further aggravated by the issuance of weak guidance. 

However, Raymond James analysts have recently shown optimism for Supermicro stock. Is this a good time to buy? Let’s find out. 

Raymond James Remains Bullish on SMCI Stock 

Raymond James initiated Supermicro stock coverage, rating it “outperform.” Analysts at Raymond James raised Supermicro’s short-term price target to $41, up 5.4% from Tuesday’s closing price of $38.89. The Supermicro stock soared 16% in Tuesday’s trading, but despite such gains, it has lost half its value year over year.  

Nonetheless, Raymond James analysts are optimistic about Supermicro becoming a leader in artificial intelligence (AI)-optimized infrastructure, with nearly 70% of its revenues coming from AI servers. Supermicro’s 9% share in the $145 billion AI platform market is expected to improve. This is because Supermicro excels in creating custom designs at competitive prices, thanks to its versatile building block architecture and ecosystem. This advantage positions the company ahead of high-end enterprise server makers like HP Enterprise and Dell Technologies Inc. DELL. 

Raymond James analysts expect Supermicro to take advantage of the broader AI market, banking on its strong competitive position compared to other business models. They also believe that due to a large U.S. footprint, Supermicro is less vulnerable to tariffs than other server manufacturers. 

Reasons to Be Bearish on SMCI Stock 

Despite Raymond James analysts’ current optimism, it would be naïve to forget that Supermicro has consistently lowered its guidance, causing its share price to decline.  

Supermicro lowered its fiscal first-quarter revenue guidance to a range of $5.9 billion to $6 billion from its earlier forecast of $6 billion to $7 billion. The company also declared that its fiscal second-quarter revenues will fall short of estimates.  

And now, in its latest fiscal third-quarter report, the company registered revenues of $4.6 billion, which fell short of its previous guidance of $5 billion to $6 billion. What’s more, its fiscal fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $5.6 billion to $6.4 billion is well short of Wall Street’s expectations of $6.82 billion. 

Supermicro’s revenue growth has been lowered due to the current NVIDIA Corporation’s NVDA Hopper-to-Blackwell transition in AI graphics processing units (GPUs), compelling customers to take time to decide which platform to build on. The GPU transition also impacted Supermicro’s gross margins. Its gross margins fell 9.6% in the latest reported quarter, with marginal signs of recovery in the near term.  

Here’s How to Trade SMCI Stock Now 

Disregarding Raymond James analysts’ optimism, Supermicro has encountered challenges stemming from accounting allegations. Its revenue expectations are down, and the company operates with a low margin.  

Thus, it’s prudent to avoid betting on Supermicro stock for the time being. The stock, regrettably, has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.08 for SMCI’s earnings per share (EPS) is down by 38.8% from a year ago. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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