Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Kohl's?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Kohl's (KSS) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at -$0.22 a share, just 14 days from its upcoming earnings release on May 29, 2025.
Kohl's Earnings ESP sits at +35.91%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the -$0.22 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of -$0.35. KSS is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
KSS is just one of a large group of Retail and Wholesale stocks with a positive ESP figure. Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Slated to report earnings on June 26, 2025, Walgreens Boots Alliance holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $0.37 a share 42 days from its next quarterly update.
Walgreens Boots Alliance's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +8.35% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.34.
KSS and WBA's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Kohl's Corporation (KSS): Free Stock Analysis Report Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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