|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
Chicago, IL – May 16, 2025 – Zacks Equity Research shares AppLovin Corp. APP as the Bull of the Day and Boise Cascade BCC as the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on AppLovin Corp. APP, Alphabet GOOGL and Meta Platforms META.
Here is a synopsis of all five stocks.
AppLovin Corp. is an artificial intelligence-boosted tech stock that outclimbed Nvidia and other Wall Street darlings over the last three years, soaring 880%.
APP posted another impressive beat-and-raise quarter on May 7 as the digital app monetization powerhouse flexes its growth as customers flock to its offerings to get ahead in a cut-throat segment of the digital economy.
The company and the stock have also fought back against multiple short-seller reports that came out earlier this year.
AppLovin is firmly on the risk end of the asset pool, with the valuation to prove it.
Wall Street has jumped headfirst back into all things growth from AI to nuclear energy upstarts, making AppLovin an enticing buy down 30% from its all-time highs and 20% below its average Zacks price target. The tech stock could break out once it retakes a key technical level.
AppLovin is projected to post impressive double-digit earnings and revenue growth in 2025 and 2026 as it expands its reach beyond mobile gaming into media, finance, and more.
AppLovin’s diverse product lineup provides essential tools for clients striving to thrive in the increasingly competitive digital app economy.
The Palo Alto-based firm's AI-powered software solutions help its clients reach their target users “in-app, on mobile devices, across streaming TV, and beyond” to try to help them tap into a portion of “1.4 billion daily active users.”
AppLovin’s technology helps its clients in mobile gaming and beyond boost user acquisition, enhance engagement, and maximize customer value throughout the customer lifecycle. The firm’s solutions were originally tailored toward mobile app developers in the gaming realm.
AppLovin has transformed its business to expand far beyond gaming into finance, fitness, health, shopping, sports betting, and nearly any industry that might be attempting to monetize digital apps. The goal is to become a one-stop ad platform for all direct-to-consumer businesses in the digital economy.
AppLovin almost doubled its sales (+93%) in 2021. Following that standout year, growth slowed to 1% in 2022 as the digital ad market slumped, dragging down Meta and others.
APP launched its advanced machine learning and AI-driven AXON technology in the second quarter of 2023. That year, AppLovin grew its revenue by 17% and swung from a loss of -$0.52 to a profit of +$0.98 per share. The company followed up with 43% sales growth in 2024 and 362% EPS growth.
The app monetization company is concentrating on five key growth pillars in 2025. One of APP’s goals is to personalize ad experiences with AI to create “countless iterations and dynamically select personalized creatives for each user” to help boost engagement and response rates.
Personalized ads represent the next frontier in the ad industry, shifting from the current “static” experience, where “users see similar-looking advertisements created by humans,” to a more dynamic, tailored approach.
AppLovin is also critically focused on streamlining its operations to improve efficiency and the bottom line. CEO Adam Foroughi said the firm aims to reduce headcount while seizing growth opportunities.
Underpinning these efforts is a focus on AI-driven automation and personalization. APP grew its Q1 revenue by 40% and its adjusted earnings by 150%, topping our estimate by 15%. The company’s strong guidance, which came in the face of short-seller reports, pushed its EPS estimates even higher.
APP’s Q2 earnings estimate has jumped 29% in the last few months, with its 2026 estimate 26% higher, helping it earn a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). The company’s EPS outlook has gone straight up over the last year and a half.
APP is projected to grow its revenue by 23% in 2025 and 21% in 2026 to surge from $4.71 billion in FY24 to $7 billion in FY26.
Meanwhile, it is projected to grow its earnings by 85% and 42%, respectively, following 362% bottom-line expansion in 2024. This trajectory would lift AppLovin’s EPS from $4.53 last year to $11.91 in FY26.
AppLovin faced significant scrutiny from multiple short-seller reports that challenged the integrity of its AI-powered advertising platform and business practices. Fuzzy Panda Research and others released short seller reports between February and March.
Overall, the short sellers claimed that AppLovin’s revenue is low-quality and driven by deceptive, predatory, and other potentially illegal advertising practices.
APP has fought against all the allegations and is “fully committed to defending the Company, its operations, and its reputation from those seeking to manipulate the market through false narratives.”
It hired a legal team at the end of March, retaining “Alex Spiro of Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan, a nationally recognized legal firm with deep expertise in securities and corporate investigations, to conduct an independent review and investigation into recent short report activity.”
AppLovin announced on May 7, when it reported earnings, that it sold its mobile gaming segment to Tripledot Studios for $400 million plus a 20% stake in Tripledot. The deal helps APP focus on its higher-margin ad tech platform and streamline operations amid short-seller scrutiny and strategic reprioritization.
Investors must ask themselves a simple question: if Wall Street thought these allegations had legs, why is the stock in the green in 2025 and up over 450% since it went public?
AppLovin stock skyrocketed 1,500% over the past two years after a steep drop in 2022 alongside the broader market. APP’s two-year surge blows away Nvidia’s 360% and Meta’s 170%. The stock has climbed 460% since its April 2021 IPO against Tech’s 40% and Meta’s 100%.
APP is up 12% in 2025 after its recent rally. Yet, the stock trades 30% below its all-time highs and 20% below its average Zacks price target.
If APP breaks above the trendline highlighted above (its December highs, Q4 earnings gap up, and pre-selloff levels), it could skyrocket to new records.
That said, AppLovin is overheated on the RSI level front, and it might fall to its 50-day or 200-day moving averages if selling pressure takes over following the huge market rally. Any pullback to those levels could mark a great buying opportunity for investors and traders.
Valuation-wise, AppLovin stock trades at a 90% discount to its all-time highs and 50% below its recent highs at 41.8X forward 12-month earnings (Tech trades at 25.5X). If you factor in AppLovin’s huge earnings growth outlook, it trades much closer to the Tech sector’s 1.7 Price/Earnings-to-Growth (PEG) ratio at 2.1.
Boise Cascade is one of the top North American producers of engineered wood products and plywood. BCC stock has tanked over 20% in 2025, driven by macroeconomic challenges, industry-specific headwinds, and operational pressures.
The engineered wood products powerhouse missed our Q1 2025 earnings estimate by 22% on May 5. It also offered disappointing guidance as part of Boise Cascade’s extended trend of downward EPS revisions.
Boise Cascade is a leading producer of engineered wood products (EWP) and plywood. The company is also a huge player in the wholesale distribution of building products in the U.S.
BCC posted an impressive stretch of top-line expansion between 2012 and 2022, highlighted by 18% growth in 2020 and 45% in 2021, driven by the Covid-driven housing and home improvement boom. Boise Cascade followed that up with another 6% sales growth in 2022, before tumbling against a tough to compete against stretch and a slowing housing market.
The company’s sales fell 19% in 2023 and 2% in 2024, while its earnings tanked roughly 40% and 20%, respectively.
Most recently, Boise Cascade adjusted earnings dropped 59% YoY in the first quarter to $1.06 a share, missing our estimate by 22%. CEO Nate Jorgensen pointed to “constrained demand, difficult weather, and planned downtime at our Oakdale veneer and plywood mill” as part of its rough quarter and downbeat outlook.
Boise Cascade's consensus 2025 earnings estimate has dropped 18% since its Q1 report. Its 2026 estimate has slipped 13% since then, and its overall negative earnings revisions earn it a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
The company’s earnings are projected to fall another 31% YoY in 2025 on 2% lower sales.
Boise Cascade is prepared to benefit from long-term demographic trends and the ongoing undersupply of single-family homes that have kept housing demand high. The company also pays dividends and has a sturdy balance sheet.
Investors might want to put Boise Cascade on their watchlists since it could be a longer-term winner. Unfortunately, BCC faces near-term headwinds driven by weak housing market demand, economic uncertainty, and more.
AppLovin Corp. has witnessed its stock decline 26% over the past three months, worse than the industry’s 15% decline. Notably, competitors in the in-game mobile advertising space have also faced headwinds. Alphabet shares have dropped 11%, while Meta Platforms has seen a 10% decrease during the same period, reflecting broader weakness in the digital ad ecosystem.
However, the tide appears to be turning. APP has surged 64% in the past month, signaling a strong rebound. Alphabet has also shown signs of recovery with an 8% gain, while Meta Platforms has rallied 31% during the same timeframe.
As major players like Alphabet and Meta Platforms regain momentum, their performance may signal improving market conditions for digital ad companies. This analysis will explore whether APP now presents an attractive opportunity for investors.
AppLovin is actively transforming into a pure-play advertising platform, sharpening its focus on high-growth, high-margin segments. A major milestone in this transition was the $900 million sale of its gaming unit to Tripledot Studios. This divestiture allows APP to concentrate on its ad technology, a move that aligns with its vision of serving the global digital advertising market, which includes over 10 million businesses. To capitalize on this vast market, the company is investing in automation, developing advanced tools to enhance customer efficiency and maximize ad performance.
AppLovin’s latest earnings report reinforces its strong financial health and growth trajectory. The company continues to benefit from its AXON 2.0 technology and strategic expansion within the gaming and in-app advertising sectors. In the first quarter of 2025, revenues surged 40% year over year, reflecting strong market demand.
Adjusted EBITDA jumped 83% year over year, showcasing improved operational efficiency. Net income skyrocketed 144% from the prior year, demonstrating APP’s ability to translate revenue growth into significant profitability. For the full year 2024, revenues climbed 43% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA surged 81%, underscoring AppLovin’s ability to seize market opportunities while maintaining efficiency.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings is $2.01 per share, indicating an impressive 125.8% increase from the prior-year quarter. Moreover, earnings for the full years 2025 and 2026 are expected to grow by 85.2% and 41.9%, respectively, compared to the previous years.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 revenues is $1.45 billion, representing an impressive 33.9% increase from the prior-year quarter. Moreover, earnings for the full years 2025 and 2026 are expected to grow by 24.3% and 19.7%, respectively, compared to the previous years.
APP presents a compelling investment opportunity due to its impressive financial performance and robust growth prospects. The company's recent results and strategic initiatives underscore its potential for continued success in the gaming and software sectors. AppLovin’s strong fundamentals, innovative technology and strategic growth initiatives position it as a leader in its industry. With a solid financial outlook and increasing analyst confidence, we recommend a "Buy" rating for APP stock to capitalize on its promising growth trajectory.
APP currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.7% average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +48.4%, +50.2% and +56.7% per year.
Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
See Stocks Free >>
Media Contact
Zacks Investment Research
800-767-3771 ext. 9339
https://www.zacks.com
Zacks.com provides investment resources and informs you of these resources, which you may choose to use in making your own investment decisions. Zacks is providing information on this resource to you subject to the Zacks "Terms and Conditions of Service" disclaimer. www.zacks.com/disclaimer.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
| 18 min | |
| 1 hour | |
| 3 hours | |
| 3 hours | |
| 4 hours | |
| 5 hours | |
| 5 hours | |
| 5 hours | |
| 6 hours | |
| 6 hours | |
| 7 hours | |
| 7 hours | |
| 10 hours | |
| May-16 | |
| May-16 |
Join thousands of traders who make more informed decisions with our premium features. Real-time quotes, advanced visualizations, backtesting, and much more.
Learn more about FINVIZ*Elite