Rocket Lab Wins NASA Contract: How Should an Investor Play the Stock?

Rocket Lab USA, Inc. RKLB has recently secured a major NASA contract to launch the Aspera astrophysics mission in early 2026, reinforcing its position as a trusted partner in advanced space science. Aspera will explore the intergalactic medium (hot gas between galaxies) using ultraviolet light, potentially unlocking new insights into the origins of stars, planets and life itself. 

The mission, set to be launched aboard Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket from Launch Complex 1, marks NASA’s first astrophysics mission of its kind and highlights Rocket Lab’s growing role in high-value, government-backed space exploration. This contract win strengthens the company’s backlog count and is likely to drive long-term revenues, which may encourage investors interested in space stocks to add RKLB to their portfolio. 

However, a prudent investor knows that before making an important decision, such as investing in a stock, one should delve deeper into the company’s performance on the bourses, growth opportunities, and investment risks (if any), rather than considering a single announcement. This way, investors can make an informed decision.

RKLB Stock Beats Industry, Sector & S&P500

Rocket Lab’s shares have surged a solid 30.7% in the past six months, outperforming the Zacks aerospace-defense industry’s rise of 8.3%. It has also outpaced the broader Zacks Aerospace sector’s rise of 5.8% as well as the S&P 500’s slip of 0.1% in the same time frame.

A similar stellar performance has been delivered by other industry players, such as Embraer ERJ and RTX Corp. RTX, whose shares have surged 27.3% and 13.5%, respectively, over the past six months.

What Led to RKLB Stock’s Price Surge?

Rocket Lab has been making headlines in recent times, thanks to the steadily growing demand trend in both the commercial and government space markets.   

The company has made several notable announcements in recent months, highlighting its expanding role in both government and commercial space sectors. In May 2025, RKLB announced that it will launch its new medium-lift reusable rocket, Neutron, for the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory’s Rocket Cargo mission focused on point-to-point transportation.

In April, Rocket Lab was selected by Kratos to launch a full-scale hypersonic test flight for the Department of Defense under the MACH-TB 2.0 program. The same month, it introduced STARRAY — customizable next-gen solar arrays designed to meet diverse satellite power needs in any orbit.

In March, Rocket Lab secured a $5.6 billion contract from the U.S. Space Force under the NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 program, allowing it to compete for top-priority national security launches. It also launched two advanced software suites — InterMission and MAX Constellation — to support secure, autonomous constellation operations. 

In February, Rocket Lab signed one of its largest Electron launch agreements with the Institute for Q-shu Pioneers of Space. The company began 2025 by expanding its NASA partnership to include Neutron launches. It closed 2024 with a successful hypersonic tech test mission for the Department of Defense.

Such a steady stream of high-profile contracts and significant launches has likely fueled investor optimism and supported RKLB’s share price momentum over the past six months.

Can RKLB Stock Continue Its Rally?

The booming commercial space sector and rising global security concerns have been fueling demand for Rocket Lab’s launch services and satellite solutions. Notably, the company’s Electron rocket stands out as a key growth driver, enabling rapid, small-payload missions for real-time intelligence and defense applications.

Looking ahead, according to a World Economic Forum report from April 2024, the space economy may reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, driven by the growing use of satellite and rocket-enabled technologies. This outlook strengthens Rocket Lab’s growth prospects, with its Electron ranking as the second most frequently launched orbital rocket by U.S. companies.

A quick sneak peek at its near-term estimates mirrors similar growth prospects.

Estimates for RKLB Stock

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RKLB’s 2025 and 2026 sales suggests an improvement of 32.1% and 48.2%, respectively, year over year.

Its 2025 and 2026 earnings estimates also suggest year-over-year improvement. The 2025 and 2026 bottom-line estimates reflect upward movement over the past 60 days. This indicates analysts’ improving confidence in the stock’s near-term earnings generation capabilities. However, the consensus estimate for RKLB’s second-quarter 2025 earnings suggests a downward movement.

Risks to Consider Before Choosing RKLB Stock

While Rocket Lab offers strong growth potential, it faces key challenges that could affect its financial performance. High operating expenses, driven by investments in the Neutron rocket, Electron recovery, advanced spacecraft and component expansion, might offset revenue gains, resulting in continued losses. 

The company also faces risks related to delays in developing and commercializing new technologies, which could hinder monetization efforts. Additionally, labor shortages remain a significant challenge for aerospace-defense stocks like Rocket Lab, Embraer and RTX. 

According to the 2024 "On the Horizon" Workforce Study by the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) and PwC, the aerospace sector’s attrition rate of 13%, well above the U.S. average, raises concerns about talent gaps. For Rocket Lab, this could lead to production delays as experienced personnel leave the workforce.

RKLB Stock Trading at a Premium

In terms of valuation, RKLB’s forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) is 16.77X, a premium to its industry’s average of 2.05X. This suggests that investors will be paying a higher price than the company's expected sales growth compared to that of its industry.

On the other hand, RKLB’s industry peers, ERJ and RTX, are trading at a discount to the company. While Embraer’s forward 12-month P/S is 1.17X, RTX is trading at a forward 12-month P/S of 2.11. 

Should You Buy RKLB Stock Now?

To conclude, investors interested in Rocket Lab should wait for a better entry point, considering its premium valuation and downward revision in second-quarter 2025 earnings estimates, along with the challenges it is facing in terms of high operating expenses and labor shortage.

However, those who already own this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company’s shares may stay invested, as RKLB’s upbeat sales estimates, benefits from the steadily growing space economy and solid share price performance offer long-term growth prospects.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.  

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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