TJX Q1 Earnings Coming Up: Key Factors You Should Understand

The TJX Companies, Inc. TJX is likely to register top-line growth when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on May 21. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at almost $13 billion, which indicates a 4% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Nevertheless, The TJX Companies is expected to witness a year-over-year decrease in its bottom line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate, which has been stable over the past 30 days at 90 cents a share, calls for a 3.2% decline compared to the same period last year. TJX has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.5%, on average. (Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

The TJX Companies, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

The TJX Companies, Inc. price-eps-surprise | The TJX Companies, Inc. Quote

Things to Know Ahead of TJX’s Q1 Earnings

The TJX Companies has been benefiting from a focus on delivering an exceptional shopping experience and unbeatable value to customers every day. A strong indicator of the company’s robust business model is the steady rise in customer transactions, reflecting growing shopper engagement and loyalty. TJX is also reaping the rewards of its aggressive expansion strategy and increasing e-commerce presence, which are helping drive sustained growth.

In its last earnings call, management highlighted that it began fiscal 2026 with a strong inventory position, well-positioned to capitalize on market opportunities and introduce fresh product assortments in stores and online this spring. As a result, The TJX Companies expects consolidated comparable store sales growth of 2% to 3% in the first quarter of fiscal 2026.

However, The TJX Companies has been dealing with the adverse impacts of the high expenses. The increase in store wages and payroll costs has raised concerns for the company. For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, SG&A expenses as a percentage of total sales are likely to have been 20%, reflecting an 80-basis-point year-over-year increase. This is a result of higher store wages and payroll costs, along with the lapping of a one-time benefit from the previous year. The combination of these rising expenses is likely to have limited the company’s profitability in the to-be-reported quarter.

For the fiscal first quarter, TJX expects a pretax profit margin decline of 1 to 1.1 percentage points, reaching 10% to 10.1%, compared to 11.1% in the year-ago quarter. Quarterly earnings per share (EPS) are projected in the range between 87 and 89 cents, reflecting a 4% to 6% decline from the previous year’s level of 93 cents.

Earnings Whispers for TJX Stock

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for The TJX Companies this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

The TJX Companies currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 and has an Earnings ESP of -0.81%.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Ralph Lauren RL currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.72% and a Zacks Rank of 3. RL is likely to register a top-line increase when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ralph Lauren’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.6 billion, indicating a 4.1% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for Ralph Lauren’s EPS is pegged at $1.96, implying a 14.6% jump from the year-ago quarter. RL delivered an earnings surprise of 6.5% in the last quarter.

Five Below, Inc. FIVE currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.18% and a Zacks Rank of 3. FIVE is likely to register a top-line increase when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $961.1 million, indicating an 18.4% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The consensus estimate for Five Below’s EPS is pegged at 80 cents, implying a 33.3% jump from the year-ago quarter. FIVE delivered an earnings surprise of 3% in the last quarter.

Gap GAP has an Earnings ESP of +5.58% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. GAP is likely to register top-line growth when it releases first-quarter 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $3.42 billion, which implies growth of 0.8% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The consensus estimate for GAP’s quarterly EPS has increased by a penny in the past 30 days to 44 cents, implying growth of 7.3% from the year-ago quarter’s number. GAP delivered an earnings surprise of 77.5%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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