AL Q1 Earnings Call: Higher Lease Rates and Insurance Recoveries Drive Earnings Beat

Aircraft leasing company Air Lease Corporation (NYSE:AL) reported Q1 CY2025 results beating Wall Street’s revenue expectations, with sales up 11.3% year on year to $738.3 million. Its non-GAAP profit of $2.19 per share was 85.2% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

Is now the time to buy AL? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).

StockStory’s Take

Air Lease’s first quarter results were shaped by a combination of fleet expansion, robust gain-on-sale activity, and significant insurance recoveries related to its Russia fleet. CEO John Plueger emphasized that ongoing strength in Asian and European airline demand, along with limited new aircraft supply, contributed to higher lease rates and full fleet utilization. The company also noted that insurance settlements and a disciplined approach to capital allocation were key contributors to the quarter’s performance.

Looking forward, management’s guidance reflects confidence in growing lease yields and maintaining high asset utilization, despite ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and macroeconomic factors. Plueger stated, “We remain very positive about Air Lease’s prospects for 2025 and beyond, in spite of recent geopolitical and potential macroeconomic crosswinds.” The company highlighted flexibility in capital deployment, with further insurance recoveries and market developments influencing decisions around share repurchases, fleet investments, and potential inorganic growth.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management attributed the quarter’s performance to fleet growth, successful aircraft sales, and insurance proceeds, while also providing updates on market demand and supply chain constraints. These factors differentiated Air Lease’s results from consensus expectations, especially regarding profitability and margin expansion.

• Fleet Expansion and Utilization: Air Lease acquired 14 new aircraft and maintained 100% fleet utilization, driven by ongoing demand from airline customers in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.
• Gain-on-Sale Activity: The company sold 16 aircraft, with gains on sale margins significantly above historical averages due to strong secondary market demand and the underlying value of its fleet.
• Insurance Recoveries: Receipt of $329 million in Russia fleet insurance settlements materially strengthened the balance sheet, supporting book value and enabling capital flexibility.
• Lease Rate Increases: Extension and new lease placements saw significantly higher rates, with some examples showing step-ups of approximately 50% compared to COVID-era leases, reflecting improved market conditions and supply constraints.
• Tariff and Supply Chain Commentary: Management addressed the potential impact of new tariffs, highlighting that tariffs are contractually the responsibility of airline customers and that Air Lease currently has minimal direct exposure to affected geographies. Ongoing delays from aircraft manufacturers, particularly Airbus, were noted as extending supply constraints through at least 2028.

Drivers of Future Performance

Management’s outlook for the year is shaped by continued supply constraints, improving lease yields, and the flexibility provided by recent insurance proceeds. The company’s ability to navigate evolving macroeconomic and geopolitical risks will be crucial for sustaining profitability and growth.

• Supply-Demand Imbalance: Ongoing production delays at Boeing and Airbus are expected to keep new aircraft supply limited, sustaining elevated lease rates and supporting asset values for Air Lease.
• Capital Allocation Options: With its debt-to-equity target achieved and additional insurance proceeds possible, Air Lease has flexibility to pursue fleet growth, share buybacks, or M&A, depending on market conditions and further insurance settlements.
• Tariff and Macro Risks: Management cautioned that potential tariff developments and broader macroeconomic shifts could impact airline customers and the global aviation industry, but emphasized that most airline lessees are outside North America and demand remains robust in key markets.

Top Analyst Questions

• Catherine O’Brien (Goldman Sachs): Asked for real-time lease extension examples post-tariff announcements; management cited recent Asian lease extensions with rates up roughly 50% from COVID-era levels, reflecting market normalization.
• Hillary Cacanando (Deutsche Bank): Inquired about capital allocation priorities; management reiterated all options—organic growth, M&A, share repurchase—are under consideration, pending further insurance developments and market conditions.
• Hillary Cacanando (Deutsche Bank): Sought clarification on tariff exposure; management explained that current contracts place tariff responsibility on airlines and that Air Lease has no upcoming deliveries to countries with announced aircraft tariffs.
• Moshe Orenbuch (TD Cowen): Questioned flexibility in deploying capital for organic growth; management described evaluating used aircraft opportunities and disciplined ordering given backlogs at manufacturers.
• Stephen Trent (Citi): Asked about net margin and ROE trends; management confirmed no change to profitability outlook, with ROE differences attributed to timing of aircraft sales and insurance recoveries.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be closely monitoring (1) the progression of lease rate increases and extension activity as new aircraft supply remains constrained, (2) further insurance recoveries and their impact on capital allocation decisions, and (3) any developments related to tariffs or macroeconomic headwinds that could affect airline demand or aircraft deliveries. Updates on capital deployment—whether through share repurchases, fleet investments, or acquisitions—will also be key indicators of management’s strategic direction.

Air Lease currently trades at a forward EV-to-EBITDA ratio of 3.2×. At this valuation, is it a buy or sell post earnings? See for yourself in our free research report.

Stocks That Trumped Tariffs in 2018

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election sent major indices to all-time highs, but stocks have retraced as investors debate the health of the economy and the potential impact of tariffs.

While this leaves much uncertainty around 2025, a few companies are poised for long-term gains regardless of the political or macroeconomic climate, like our Top 5 Strong Momentum Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 176% over the last five years.

Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Comfort Systems (+782% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.