Leading Economic Indicator Drops in April

Pre-market futures are flat following a sixth-straight up-day on the S&P 500. Market sentiment — likely due to partiality toward positive trade deals in the works with global trading partners of the U.S. — has been positively buoyant, leading to a “V”-shaped rally. As of yesterday, markets blew through negative economic sentiment, but this morning the appetite seems to be lacking.

The Dow is +0.03% and the S&P 500 is -0.17% at this hour. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, which has grown nearly +20% on this near-term recovery, is -0.28% at this hour in early trading. The small-cap Russell 2000 is up a scant +0.06%. The 10-year bond yield has moved back below +4.5%, the 2-year below +4%.

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Drop Again in April

Yesterday after the open, we saw another big fall in U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for April, -1.0% to 99.4 points — the first time we were sub-100 since multi-year lows back in September of last year. This was the fifth-straight drop after the hopeful turn in LEI back around the 2024 election.

For a little context, back when the Fed began raising interest rates to fight runaway inflation in March 2022, U.S. LEI started a steep and steady downward trajectory over the next two-and-a-half years, from 117.6 at the peak to 99.7 last September. We surged back up over 100 in October and the climb started to descend in December. Yesterday’s 99.4 is the lowest monthly print we’ve seen more than 10 years.

Q1 Earnings Before the Bell: Home Deport, Viking

Home Depot HD is the latest big box retailer to report April-ending quarterly earnings, posting mixed results ahead of today’s open. Earnings of $3.56 per share was shy of the Zacks consensus by 3 cents, while revenues modestly outperformed estimates to $39.86 billion, up +9.4% year over year. Shares are up +2% in today’s pre-market, wiping away most of its losses year to date.

Viking Holdings VIK, the parent company of the popular Viking river cruise lines, outperformed expectations in its Q1 report this morning. Negative earnings of -$0.24 per share were 2 cents better than anticipated, on $897.06 million in revenues, +4.49% ahead of estimates. The company’s conference call is going on presently, and shares are down -5% at this hour. Viking had been up nearly +7% year to date as of yesterday’s close.

Earnings Reports After Today’s Close

Calendar Q1 earnings season continues to wind down, but we still see some pertinent companies reporting — including after today’s closing bell. Cybersecurity major Palo Alto Networks PANW is expected to post negative -8% earnings growth, with revenues looking to come in +14.67%. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) with a Value-Growth-Momentum grade of F into today’s report.

Upscale homebuilder Toll Brothers TOL also reports fiscal Q2 numbers after today’s close. It’s been a stormy climate for the housing market, as nearly everyone knows, and this Zacks Rank #4-rated company is expected to fetch -15.3% on its bottom line and -11.9% on the top-line. The company looks to post its third earnings beat in the last four quarters.

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