NVIDIA Gains Momentum Ahead of Q1 Earnings: ETFs in Focus

AI leader NVIDIA NVDA is in the spotlight as it is set to release its fiscal first-quarter 2026 results after market close on May 28. The chipmaker has gained momentum in recent weeks ahead of its earnings announcement.

The chipmaker has gained 5.1% over the past three months compared with the industry’s growth of 3.5%. NVIDIA reclaimed $3 trillion in its market cap early this month. The strong trend is likely to continue if it comes up with an earnings beat (read: NVIDIA Reclaims $3 Trillion: ETFs to Bet On). 

ETFs having the largest allocation to NVIDIA will be in focus ahead of its earnings report. These include Strive U.S. Semiconductor ETF SHOC, VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF SMH, VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF SMHX, YieldMax Target 12 Semiconductor Option Income ETF SOXY and Columbia Semiconductor and Technology ETF SEMI.

Earnings Whispers

NVIDIA currently has an Earnings ESP of -0.41% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). According to our methodology, the combination of a positive Earnings ESPand a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

The AI leader saw negative earnings estimate revisions of a couple of cents for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 over the past seven days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for 39.3% revenue growth and 63.9% earnings growth in the fiscal first quarter. NVIDIA’s earnings surprise history is also good, as it delivered an earnings surprise of 7.92%, on average, in the last four quarters.
 

NVIDIA Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

NVIDIA Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | NVIDIA Corporation Quote

NVIDIA has a Growth Score of A, suggesting that it is primed for growth.

Wall Street analysts maintained their bullish view on the stock, with a recommendation of 1.36 on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), made by 45 brokerage firms. Of these, 37 are Strong Buy and two are Buy. Strong Buy and Buy, respectively, account for 82.22% and 4.44% of all recommendations.

Based on short-term price targets offered by 42 analysts, the average price target for NVIDIA comes to $167.00. The forecasts range from a low of $100.00 to a high of $220.00.

AI to Fuel Growth

NVIDIA is a global leader in the AI chip market, controlling between 80% and 95% of the market, according to Reuters. Its success is largely attributed to its leadership in developing advanced graphics processing units (GPUs), which are unmatched in producing processors that power artificial intelligence systems, including generative AI, the technology backing OpenAI’s ChatGPT that can create text, images and other media. Most analysts believe NVIDIA will become far more valuable in the future due to its dominance in the billion-dollar AI chip market.

NVIDIA is once again poised to redefine the AI landscape with the upcoming launch of its new AI chipset. The mass production is likely to begin as early as next month.

On the last earnings conference call, CEO Jensen Huang said demand for NVIDIA’s Blackwell chip, its latest chip for powering AI servers, "is amazing" and predicted more to come. He expressed confidence in NVIDIA’s future, noting that the company is at the center of what he described as the “next wave” of AI innovations. Huang said, “AI is advancing at light speed as agentic AI and physical AI set the stage for the next wave of AI to revolutionize the largest industries.”

The AI darling offered a bullish revenue outlook for the to-be-reported quarter and optimism about its next-generation AI Blackwell chips. For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, the graphics chipmaker expects revenues of $43 billion, plus or minus 2%. As NVIDIA continues to ride the wave of AI demand, it will continue to grow in the coming year (read: Tech ETFs at the Forefront of the Current Market Rally).

What Does NVDA’s Valuation Say?

NVIDIA is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 31.37, slightly lower than the Semiconductor - General industry average of 31.58. Further, the stock is currently trading at a PEG ratio of 1.27, much lower than the industry average of 2.10. The lower the PEG ratio, the better the value, as investors would pay less for each unit of earnings.

ETFs in Focus

Strive U.S. Semiconductor ETF (SHOC) – NVIDIA exposure: 22.9%

VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) – NVIDIA exposure: 21%

VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX) – NVIDIA exposure: 20.5%

YieldMax Target 12 Semiconductor Option Income ETF (SOXY) – NVIDIA exposure: 19.4%

Columbia Semiconductor and Technology ETF (SEMI) – NVIDIA exposure: 17.1%

Single-Stock ETFs

Investors seeking to take on more risk could bet on single-stock ETFs with 200% exposure to NVIDIA. These include T-REX 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF NVDX and the GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF NVDL.

Roundhill NVDA WeeklyPay ETF NVW seeks to provide weekly distributions and calendar week returns, equal to 1.2 times (120%) the calendar week total return of NVIDIA shares.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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