FLO Q1 Earnings Call: Lower Sales, Volume Pressures, and Guidance Reduction Amid Category Weakness

Packaged bakery food company Flower Foods (NYSE:FLO) fell short of the market’s revenue expectations in Q1 CY2025, with sales falling 1.4% year on year to $1.55 billion. Its non-GAAP EPS of $0.35 per share was 6.3% below analysts’ consensus estimates.

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StockStory’s Take

Flowers Foods' first quarter results reflected challenges in the packaged bakery market, with management pointing to ongoing softness in consumer demand and heightened economic uncertainty. CEO Ryals McMullian emphasized that while Flowers Foods maintained its unit market share, "none of us here are satisfied with our absolute performance in the quarter," citing further-than-anticipated declines in the overall bread category. He discussed the company’s continued investments in brand differentiation and innovation, particularly in faster-growing segments like better-for-you breads and snacking, as Flowers Foods navigates an increasingly value-focused consumer environment. McMullian also noted that the traditional white bread segment, where Flowers Foods has significant exposure, continues to face pressure and requires renewed differentiation efforts.

Looking ahead, Flowers Foods’ updated outlook is shaped by persistent headwinds, including soft category demand, value-seeking consumer behavior, and the impact of new tariffs on input costs. Management acknowledged that visibility into category recovery remains limited, with McMullian stating, "I don't know that we see a tremendous amount of improvement this year," and pointing to 2026 as a more realistic horizon for stabilization. CFO Steve Kinsey detailed the company’s approach to managing cost pressures, including targeted savings in selling, distribution, and administrative expenses while maintaining investment in core brands. Tariff impacts, especially on imported inputs like sugar and palm oil, are expected to weigh on gross margins, and management has adopted what it describes as a "fairly conservative" approach to full-year guidance.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management attributed the quarter’s performance to declining industry-wide bread consumption, ongoing shifts in consumer preference, and higher input costs. They highlighted targeted innovation and operational adjustments to address these challenges.

• Category contraction pressured sales: Flowers Foods faced a sharper-than-expected decline in packaged bread consumption, which management attributed to both economic uncertainty and a growing shift toward value-focused and health-oriented purchasing.
• Premiumization and value trends: CEO Ryals McMullian noted a bifurcation in consumer behavior, with growth in premium and better-for-you breads (such as Dave’s Killer Bread and Keto lines), while traditional white bread—the company’s largest segment—lost ground, requiring new differentiation strategies.
• Selective promotional activity: The company increased promotions selectively, primarily for differentiated brands, but reiterated a commitment to avoid deep discounting that could erode brand value. Management emphasized the use of data-driven trade promotion systems to maximize return on investment.
• Foodservice and private label: Both segments saw continued weakness, particularly in the foodservice channel, which is experiencing broader industry declines. However, operational restructuring improved foodservice margins, and new private label wins are expected to offset some lost volume over time.
• Supply chain optimization: Flowers Foods continued to rationalize its manufacturing footprint, closing an older bread and bun facility as part of a multi-year effort to improve efficiency and profitability across its network.

Drivers of Future Performance

Management’s outlook for the year centers on cautious consumer demand, input cost inflation from tariffs, and ongoing portfolio innovation.

• Consumer health and category stabilization: Management believes a return to stronger sales depends on improved consumer confidence and stabilization in bread consumption, which they do not expect to materialize meaningfully until 2026. The company is investing in differentiated products and smaller loaf sizes to address evolving household structures and health trends.
• Tariff and input cost headwinds: CFO Steve Kinsey outlined that recently implemented and expanded tariffs on imported ingredients (including sugar, palm oil, gluten, and cocoa) will pressure gross margins. The company is working to secure alternative supply sources but anticipates these costs will remain a significant headwind throughout the year.
• Portfolio strategy and innovation: Flowers Foods is launching new products, such as the Wonder mini half loaf and expanded snacking offerings, to capture growth in faster-expanding categories. Management highlighted that initial distribution gains from recent launches and the Simple Mills acquisition are tracking in line with expectations, though ongoing caution is built into forecasts.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

Over the coming quarters, the StockStory team will focus on (1) tracking the performance of new product launches such as Wonder mini half loaves and health-oriented offerings, (2) monitoring the company’s ability to offset tariff-related margin pressures through operational efficiencies, and (3) watching for signs of stabilization or recovery in core bread category volumes. Progress in expanding distribution for Simple Mills and sustained improvement in foodservice profitability will also serve as important markers of execution.

Flowers Foods currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14.6×. Should you double down or take your chips? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).

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