NIKE Bets Big on Digital: Will It Deliver Sustainable Growth?

NIKE Inc. NKE remains a digital heavyweight, especially in key markets. It holds a top-three position in global online athleticwear sales, and its digital ecosystem reaches consumers in nearly 190 countries. The company is doubling down on digital transformation as a central pillar of its turnaround strategy, revamping its go-to-market approach, enhancing product storytelling and building premium experiences across both digital platforms and physical stores. 

NIKE's digital investments are focused on direct-to-consumer (DTC) models, data analytics and AI-driven personalization, aiming to create a more personalized, connected and seamless experience for its customers. The company is repositioning NIKE Digital as a premium, full-price channel, drastically reducing promotions and improving storytelling across its online platforms. Initiatives like “zero promotional days” in North America and enhanced user experiences are early steps to regain brand heat and margin expansion.

As a result of these shifts, combined with a pullback in paid media, management expects digital traffic to decline double-digits in fiscal 2026. Our model projects NIKE’s digital revenues to decline 1.3% in fiscal 2025 and 2% in fiscal 2026, reflecting the near-term impact of this strategic reset before the benefits of full-price positioning materialize.

In third-quarter fiscal 2025, NIKE Digital sales slipped 15% year over year, contributing to a 10% drop in overall Nike DTC revenues. The company attributes this decline to its intentional reduction in promotional activity, cutting North America digital promotional days from more than 30 to zero year over year. While this has impacted near-term demand, NIKE is focused on repositioning its digital channel as a full-price, premium experience. Despite the dip, digital still represents a large portion of NIKE’s DTC business, which accounts for about 40% of total revenues globally, a significant indicator of its strategic importance. 

Looking ahead, NIKE's digital ambition is not just about sales, but shaping culture and capturing the consumer where they are. With strong early results from digital-led product drops like the Vomero 18 and Peg Premium, and the upcoming NikeSKIMS launch, NIKE is betting big on storytelling, innovation and personalization to reassert its dominance. The company’s vision suggests that digital will be the arena where product energy meets consumer passion—delivered at scale, but curated with intent.

NKE’s Competition in the Digital Space

lululemon athletica inc. LULU and adidas AG ADDYY are the major companies competing with NIKE in the digital arena.

lululemon, a key competitor to NIKE in the athleisure space, has built a strong digital business that accounted for more than 40% of its total revenues in recent quarters. The brand maintains a robust digital footprint, supported by a seamless omnichannel experience and a loyal customer base. lululemon's digital market share in the U.S. activewear and athleisure segment has steadily expanded, particularly among higher-income female consumers - a segment where NIKE also competes. The company has leaned into personalized shopping experiences, rapid delivery, and community-driven digital engagement through its Lululemon Studio platform. While NIKE dominates in sport-performance categories, lululemon’s digital business increasingly overlaps with NIKE’s, especially in women’s training, yoga and lifestyle apparel. This intensifying rivalry is most evident in North America, where both brands are doubling down on digital engagement and brand storytelling.

adidas is reshaping its digital business, which now accounts for 20–25% of total sales, with a goal to reach 50% via DTC by 2025. The company’s digital footprint spans global e-commerce, mobile apps and a strong presence on third-party platforms, supported by personalized shopping and the adiClub loyalty program. While NIKE leads in digital scale and innovation, adidas overlaps significantly in categories like sneakers, streetwear and casual sportswear, particularly among Gen Z and fashion-driven consumers. Both brands are heavily invested in key markets like North America and China, with growing competition across performance-running, lifestyle and women’s activewear in the digital space.

NKE’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

Shares of NIKE have lost around 16.3% year to date against the industry’s growth of 16%.

From a valuation standpoint, NKE trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 29.33X, higher than the industry’s average of 20.78X.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NKE’s fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year plunge of 46.1% and 8.7%, respectively. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) estimate for fiscal 2025 has been on the rise in the past 30 days. Meanwhile, the EPS estimate for fiscal 2026 has moved south in the past 30 days.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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