How Long Can NIKE Rely on Jordan Brand to Drive Growth?

NIKE, Inc.’s NKE Jordan Brand has long been a pillar of strength in its portfolio, driven by iconic designs, cultural cachet and a deeply loyal customer base. Even in challenging retail environments, the brand has remained a symbol of resilience. Jordan’s visibility in marquee moments, like the Super Bowl and NBA All-Star Weekend, underscores its continued cultural dominance. However, in third-quarter fiscal 2025, NIKE reported a double-digit decline in Jordan’s classic footwear franchises, indicating potential saturation and overexposure in the marketplace.

Despite this decline, NIKE sees Jordan as part of a broader, more diversified brand strategy. The company’s management has emphasized rightsizing key franchises like the Air Jordan 1, while simultaneously seeding new products such as the Vomero 5 and Air Max Muse. NIKE’s "Win Now" strategy is also geared toward shifting focus to performance-led innovation and expanding newer silhouettes that can complement, not just replace, classic icons. The aim is to re-energize the marketplace with fresh styles and tighter inventory management.

While Jordan continues to be a critical asset, NIKE’s long-term growth will depend on balancing its heritage with innovation. The Jordan brand alone cannot carry the full load forever. To sustain momentum, NIKE must broaden its appeal through new product pipelines and revitalizing other performance and lifestyle categories.

NKE’s Competition in Footwear & Accessories Spaces

Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK and adidas AG ADDYY are the key companies competing with NIKE on such grounds.

Deckers designs, markets and sells footwear, apparel and accessories crafted for everyday casual lifestyle uses and high-performance activities. Its brands integrate style and comfort, each infused with its own unique identity. Deckers is strategically positioned for future growth, thanks to its strong brand equity, global expansion and ongoing commitment to innovation. DECK’s popular brands, HOKA and UGG, are expanding their reach across diverse markets, fueled by refreshed products, premium brand positioning and a solid omnichannel footprint. The company’s emphasis on international expansion and offering consumer-centric designs strengthens its competitive edge.

adidas is another sporting goods giant vying for a larger share in the sportswear market. The company offers a comprehensive selection of athletic apparel, footwear and equipment across sports, such as running, football, basketball and training. ADDYY’s collection features a heritage line of athletic footwear and lifestyle basics, including t-shirts, jackets, bags, sunglasses and a lot more. The clothing and accessories come under signature categories, including Superstar and Adicolor, manufactured in-house by adidas. The company is aggressively focused on expanding its presence by launching relevant product lines and innovations alongside enhancing its brand presence via collaborations and marketing campaigns.

NKE’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

Shares of NIKE have lost 22.1% year to date compared with the industry’s decline of 19%.

From a valuation standpoint, NKE trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 30.53X, higher than the industry’s average of 24.42X.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NKE’s fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year plunge of 46.1% and 11.4%, respectively. The company’s EPS estimate for fiscal 2025 has been stable and that of fiscal 2026 has moved down in the past 30 days.

NIKE stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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