The global oil market is grappling with escalating geopolitical tensions after U.S. airstrikes targeted three of Iran’s primary nuclear facilities — Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The development matched market watchers’ anticipation and has left traders bracing for a likely surge in oil prices.
Note that United States Oil Fund LP USO and United States Brent Oil Fund LP BNO added 23.8% and 21.6% over the past one month (as of Jun 20, 2025). The region at the center of these tensions makes up for about one-third of the world’s oil supply.
Energy Analysts Warn of $100 Oil
Market watchers are now focused on Iran’s likely response. According to Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee, retaliation could lead to a significant escalation, possibly involving attacks on U.S. assets in the Gulf or threats to shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz, as quoted on Bloomberg.
The Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for oil exports from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and other major OPEC producers, remains a key concern.
Uncertainty Over Trump’s Long-Term Strategy
The Trump administration's intentions remain the major question here. After initially signaling indecision last Thursday, President Trump ordered the strikes early Sunday, calling the targets "obliterated" and warning Iran of further action unless it agrees to make peace with Israel, as quoted on Bloomberg.
Country ETFs to Gain/Lose
Against this backdrop, below-mentioned country-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) should win and lose if oil prices rally on Iran tensions.
ETFs to Gain
Norway – iShares MSCI Norway ETF ENOR
Norway is among the top 10 nations famous for oil exports and with its comparatively low population, oil forms the key part of the country’s GDP. Per U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Norway is the largest oil producer and exporter in Western Europe.The oil and gas sector makes up around 22% of Norwegian GDP and 67% of Norwegian exports.
Canada – iShares MSCI Canada ETF EWC
Canada is also among the world’s top 10 oil producers. The oil, gas and mining sector makes up about over a quarter of Canada’s economy. The country is one of the world's largest producers of dry natural gas.
ETFs to Lose
India – iShares India 50 ETF INDY
India is almost entirely dependent on imports to back its oil needs. An oil price rally could thus be a major deterrent to India investing.
Turkey – iShares MSCI Turkey ETF TUR
Normally, Turkey’s 90% of the crude requirements are satisfied by imports. In any case, the country’s economy has been suffering from high inflation.
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United States Oil ETF (USO): ETF Research Reports United States Brent Oil ETF (BNO): ETF Research Reports iShares India 50 ETF (INDY): ETF Research Reports iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR): ETF Research Reports iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC): ETF Research Reports iShares MSCI Norway ETF (ENOR): ETF Research ReportsThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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