Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) on Analyzing Good Businesses’ Substack by YoungHamilton. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BKNG. Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG)'s share was trading at $5298.38 as of 13^th June. BKNG’s trailing and forward P/E were 33.03 and 25.13 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Booking Holdings, the global leader in online travel, processed over 1.1 billion room nights, 83 million rental car days, and 49 million airline tickets in 2024 through its suite of platforms—Booking.com, Priceline, and Agoda.Originally launched as Priceline in 1997, the company evolved through strategic acquisitions and eventually rebranded to Booking Holdings in 2018. Today, its strength lies in accommodation bookings, particularly hotels and alternative stays, where it earns commissions by driving incremental demand.

Hotels value Booking’s demand engine, as data shows minimal overlap between OTA customers and direct bookers. Booking’s 8.1 million alternative accommodations have grown significantly since 2021, leveraging its hotel traffic to attract professional hosts. This segment is now seen by 1 in 3 searchers versus 1 in 7 pre-pandemic, aided by host tools and protections comparable to Airbnb.

Beyond accommodations, Booking’s long-term value lies in the "Connected Trip" strategy—bundling flights, hotels, car rentals, and activities into a seamless customer journey. To realize this, the company invested heavily in its merchant payments model and launched its own flights platform across 40 countries, using flights as a gateway product to cross-sell higher-margin services. While connected trips represent only a high-single-digit share of bookings today, the cross-sell potential is material. Investments in activities, often booked late in the journey, remain secondary for now. Despite achieving record bookings and earnings in 2024, margins lag 2019 levels due to reinvestments.

A newly announced $400–$450 million cost-cutting initiative aims to drive efficiency. With strong secular tailwinds, expanding supply, and strategic reinvestments, Booking remains well-positioned for long-term compounding.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Booking Holdings (BKNG) by Jimmy Investor in April 2024, positioning it as the leading online travel platform benefiting from the global tourism rebound, embedded fintech, and mobile-first consumer behavior. The thesis emphasized BKNG’s strong margins, AI-powered personalization, and robust free cash flow as drivers of shareholder returns. Since then, shares have risen by over 15% The thesis by YoungHamilton in reinforces the long-term case by spotlighting the company’s “Connected Trip” strategy, growing alternative accommodations, and a planned $400–$450 million cost-cutting initiative to boost efficiency.

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 102 hedge fund portfolios held Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) at the end of the first quarter which was 99 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of BKNG as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.