ARM Holdings' Valuation Running Ahead of Fundamentals Amid AI Hype

Arm Holdings plc ARM has attracted immense investor attention, thanks to its perceived position at the heart of the AI revolution, given that its architecture underpins a vast number of chips used in everything from smartphones to emerging AI devices. However, its current valuation warrants a closer look.

ARM trades at nearly 85X forward 12-month earnings, a significant premium to the broader semiconductor industry average of 33X. While the company’s strategic relevance is undeniable, the elevated multiple reflects expectations that may take time to materialize in financial results.

Arm-based chips are shipped at an impressive scale, over 30 billion units annually, yet the company generates relatively modest revenues per chip. In fiscal 2024, Arm reported $4 billion in total revenue, with $2 billion derived from royalties. This places the average royalty rate at about 6.5 cents per chip, while overall per-chip revenue stands at approximately 13 cents.

Arm’s strength lies in its broad ecosystem and power-efficient designs, which position it well for long-term trends in AI, IoT, and mobile computing. However, its current revenue model, driven primarily by low per-unit royalties, indicates a need for more substantial near-term monetization.

Investors may want to consider locking in gains while the stock remains priced for perfection. Further upside may depend on a clearer path to stronger revenue and earnings growth.

Beyond ARM: NVIDIA and Qualcomm are Better Valued

While ARM’s valuation may prompt caution, investors looking for semiconductor exposure with clearer financial traction might consider NVIDIA NVDA and Qualcomm QCOM. NVIDIA, with a forward 12-month P/E of 32, continues to dominate the AI accelerator space, with strong revenue and earnings growth, driven by surging demand for its GPUs. The company’s leadership in AI infrastructure makes NVIDIA a favorite among growth-oriented investors.

Meanwhile, Qualcomm, trading at just 13x forward earnings, offers a more diversified chip portfolio spanning smartphones, automotive, and IoT. Its solid royalty business and increasing footprint in AI-powered edge devices position Qualcomm for steady expansion. Both NVIDIA and Qualcomm have demonstrated the ability to monetize their innovations more effectively than ARM, making them compelling alternatives.

ARM’s Price Performance, Estimates

The stock has surged 28% year to date, significantly outperforming the industry’s 11% rally.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARM’s earnings has been on the decline over the past 60 days.

ARM stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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