Here's Why Investors Should Avoid ZTO Express Stock Now

ZTO Express Cayman Inc. ZTO is grappling with challenges ranging from rising operating expenses and deteriorating liquidity position, which are adversely affecting its bottom line and making it an unattractive choice for investors’ portfolios.

Let’s delve deeper.

ZTO: Key Risks to Watch

Southward Earnings Estimate Revision: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has been revised 10.3% downward over the past 60 days and is pegged at $1.56 per share. Meanwhile, the consensus estimate for 2026 earnings is pegged at $1.71 per share, declining 10% over the past 60 days.

The unfavorable estimate revision indicates brokers’ lack of confidence in the stock.

Dim Price Performance: ZTO Express shares have lost 13% in the past year compared with the industry’s 6.8% decline.

Weak Zacks Rank: ZTO currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Headwinds: ZTO Express is facing mounting financial pressure as its operating expenses continue to rise sharply. In the first quarter of 2025, total operating costs surged 17.9% year over year, largely due to increased spending at sorting hubs and trunk transportation. Specifically, sorting center costs rose 6.8% to $319 million, while trunk transportation expenses climbed 3.3% to $480 million. These growing expenditures are putting considerable strain on the company’s profitability, especially if cost increases outpace revenue growth or cannot be offset through operational efficiencies.

At the same time, ZTO’s liquidity position is weakening, as reflected in its steadily declining current ratio (a measure of liquidity), which fell from 1.49 in 2022 to 1.34 in 2023 and dropped further to 1.07 in 2024. In the first quarter of 2025, the current ratio was pegged at 1.05. This trend raises serious concerns about the company’s ability to meet its short-term financial obligations.

A current ratio hovering near 1.0 suggests that ZTO has little margin for error, and continued deterioration could force the company to rely on external financing or asset sales to stay afloat. If these issues are not addressed through tighter cost controls and improved working capital management, ZTO’s financial stability could be at risk.

Stocks to Consider

Investors interested in the Transportation sector may consider Wabtec WAB and Kirby KEX.

WAB currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

WAB has an expected earnings growth rate of 15.3% for the current year. The company has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 5.9%. Shares of WAB have risen 13% year to date.

KEX currently carries a Zacks Rank of #2.

KEX has an expected earnings growth rate of 18.7% for the current year. The company has an encouraging earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 5%. Shares of KEX have rallied 10.5% year to date.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research