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Nvidia has been on a enduring run over the past few years, thanks to advances in artificial intelligence (AI) -- but this could be just the beginning.
The company's graphics processing units (GPUs) are the gold standard for numerous use cases, including gaming, cloud computing, and the data centers needed to facilitate AI.
There are other potential drivers investors shouldn't sleep on that could propel Nvidia stock even higher.
There's no denying that 2025 has been a tumultuous year for investors thus far, and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is a prime example. After rallying as much as 11% to kick off the year, the stock plunged 37% from its peak, before eventually climbing to new highs. Concerns about ongoing inflation, the impact of tariffs, and the unresolved trade war have all contributed to the historic volatility.
Nvidia has become the de facto standard-bearer for the AI revolution, and despite increasing competition, the company's chips are still the gold standard for AI processing. In fact, since the adoption of AI kicked into high gear in early 2023, Nvidia stock has soared 990%.
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As a result, Nvidia is currently the world's largest publicly traded company by market cap, clocking in at $3.86 trillion (as of this writing). Yet there could be more to come. Nvidia could potentially become the world's first $20 trillion company, which would represent additional upside of more than 400%, according to one Wall Street analyst.
Image source: Getty Images.
Nvidia revolutionized the video game industry when it pioneered the graphics processing unit (GPU) in 1999. What made these chips unique was the introduction of parallel processing, which allowed them to conduct a multitude of mathematical calculations simultaneously. That enabled the chips to subdivide computationally intensive jobs into smaller, more manageable bits, thereby speeding processing time. It turns out that those lightning-fast processors could be brought to bear on a plethora of other computing tasks, which quickly made them the top choice for AI.
Beyond its industry-leading hardware, Nvidia chips bring more to the game. Its Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) programming platform and software architecture help developers get the best performance from the GPU. Nvidia offers more than 400 libraries that help developers "build, optimize, deploy, and scale applications across PCs, workstations, the cloud, and supercomputers using the CUDA platform." By helping developers tap the full capabilities of the GPU, Nvidia has become their first choice and the industry standard.
Far beyond gaming, Nvidia's chips dominate a number of use cases for the GPU, including cloud computing, data centers, and machine learning -- an earlier branch of AI. CUDA is deeply entrenched among developers, and Nvidia remains the top choice for generative AI.
Nvidia currently boasts a market cap of roughly $3.86 trillion, which implies stock price gains of 418% to drive its value to $20 trillion. According to Wall Street, Nvidia is poised to generate revenue of roughly $200 billion in fiscal 2026, giving it a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of roughly 19. Assuming its P/S remains constant, Nvidia would need to grow its revenue to roughly $1 trillion to support a $20 trillion market cap.
Wall Street is currently forecasting revenue growth for Nvidia of 21% annually over the next five years. If the company can maintain that growth rate, it could actually achieve a $20 trillion market cap as early as 2035. To be clear, plenty of things would have to go right for Nvidia to reach this lofty benchmark, so the potential is pretty remote.
One Wall Street analyst, however, believes chances are more than good. Philip Panaro, former Boston Consulting Group executive, said, "I believe Nvidia will hit $800 by 2030." That works out to a market cap of just short of $20 trillion.
The analyst lays out three primary factors that will help fuel Nvidia's rise to $20 trillion:
Panaro believes these opportunities will drive the revenue growth necessary to support a $20 trillion market cap for Nvidia.
While Panaro presents an intriguing case, I think the chances of Nvidia hitting his lofty goals are slim. That said, the company doesn't need to hit a $20 trillion market cap by 2030 for it to be a winning investment.
It's also worth noting that fair-weather investors tend to bail at the first signs of trouble, making Nvidia extremely volatile. Look no further than the stock's 37% decline earlier this year or its 66% drop during the economic downturn in 2022 as evidence that investing in Nvidia isn't for the faint of heart. On the bright side, however, the stock is currently selling for 28 times next year's earnings (as of this writing), a compelling opportunity for a company with an opportunity of this magnitude.
I'm a dyed-in-the-wool Nvidia bull. The stock accounts for 12% of my portfolio and is my second-largest position. While I believe in the long-term potential of the company, I also believe the road ahead will be a bumpy one.
While Nvidia may not see a market cap of $20 trillion over the next years, the stock is still an unqualified buy.
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Danny Vena has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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